Ready for Christmas? Not yet, and dreading the debt

Christmas is only a week away, but even shoppers who have not yet finished buying their gifts are looking beyond the holiday to when they plan to return (or pass along) presents, buy gifts for themselves and start chipping away at their credit-card debt. A survey conducted earlier this month by Consumer Reports National Research Center indicates that there will be a rash of last-minute and post-holiday shopping this year. And some consumers expect it to take months to pay for their largess.

Christmas countdown
Nearly one-quarter of consumers (24 percent) anticipate not completing their holiday shopping until December 23rd or later and one in 10 don't expect to be done until Christmas Eve. Five percent of respondents plan to finish their gift shopping after Christmas—compared to the 19 percent who are already done.

When they shop, those surveyed say they patronize such mass merchandisers as Target and Wal-Mart, pay cash and watch their spending. Holiday shoppers intend to give an average of 13 gifts this season, down one from last year. They expect to spend an average of $763 for those gifts with only 16 percent of shoppers saying they plan to spend more this year than last. More than half plan to spend the same and 29 percent plan to spend less.

Efforts to keep spending in check may account for the increase in respondents—53 percent compared to 46 percent last year—who say they find their best deals at mass merchandisers. Since last year, expectations of getting deals have fallen for every other category of retailer including department stores (Macy's, Sears), discount stores (TJ Maxx, Marshalls), online retailers, outlet stores and big-box stores (Sam's, Costco).

This year most shoppers are opting to pay cash for their purchases—79 percent. Use of credit cards has fallen from 48 percent to 45 percent. And fewer folks are using debit cards—40 percent compared to last year's 46 percent.

Online deadline
With shopping and shipping days waning, some consumers still plan to make online purchases. Of those, 95 percent expect to wrap up their purchases by December 22. After this date, problems with gifts arriving in time for Christmas are more likely. Still, four percent of online shoppers admit their shopping will slip past the 22nd.

Nearly a quarter (24 percent) of last-minute online shoppers will pay extra for expedited delivery, a decrease from last year when 31 percent of shoppers paid the extra cost. And 42 percent of online shoppers said they order items they had not intended to buy to qualify for free shipping offers or other discounts.

Nintendo Wii: How to give one this holiday

If you want to put a Wii under the tree this year, you can still do it, if you're willing to brave early-morning lines, high prices or the disappointed look you'll get when handing over a virtual gaming console. CR's Paul Eng outlines the options, which essentially include shelling out $400 or more for a "bundle" including accessories and games that you may or may not want; picking up a Wii gift card that guarantees a unit in January; or lining up in frigid pre-dawn temperatures in front of New York's Nintendo World store and waiting for the doors to open. Eng did just that earlier this week, and reports that he managed to pick up a unit for $250 after waiting a mere three hours. But don't assume you'll get off as easily; Eng reports that, on his foray, at least one intrepid soul had begun his wait at 8:00 the previous evening, and as December 25th gets ever closer, more Wii-wishers may find themselves joining that late-night crowd.
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Shipping deadlines loom large for online shoppers

Sure, there are still two whole weekends for shoppers to finish their holiday shopping (one of which is even a three-day weekend for those lucky enough to have December 24th off). But the deadline for the 65 percent of consumers who plan to do at least some shopping online is much closer, especially for those who don't want to shell out for express shipping. And, of course,  deadlines differ from store to store, making it difficult to decide exactly where to invest those precious few minutes of screen time. Fortunately, the folks at DealHack have put together a handy cheat sheet with the shipping deadlines for over 120 merchants.  While most are still offering standard shipping with delivery by the 24th, some — including name brands like BarnesAndNoble.com, CircuitCity.com and ToysRUs.com — have already slipped into express (or at least "expedited") mode.  Many more are moving in that direction this weekend, with most throwing in the towel on standard delivery by next Tuesday, December 18th. Some notable holdouts, according to DealHack: Zappos.com, which is offering standard shipping with holiday delivery all the way through December 21st, and Blue Nile, which stretches its deadline all the way to December 22nd. And remember, if you plan to send your gifts the old-fashioned way — by waiting on line at the Post Office — tomorrow's your last day for Parcel Post, though you can get those gifts out by Express Mail all the way through the 22nd.

Online shoppers have short attention spans

Are you a fickle online shopper? If so, you're not alone. A recent Internet shopping and browsing survey found that U.S. consumers have a short attention span when browsing for products online. The survey, which was commissioned by SLI Systems and conducted by Zoomerang, found that 73 percent of respondents are ready to leave an e-commerce site within one to two minutes if they don't find what they are looking for. And 54 percent said they would only click through two or three pages of search results before giving up. It turns out that a good site search is important to shoppers; 36 percent of people said that they would not return to a retail site with poor search. One thing is certain, Web sites don't have much time to convince shoppers to stick around if they don't find what they are looking for quickly.

ShopSmart's top sites for holiday shopping

Our sister publication, ShopSmart, just launched a new site, filled with excerpts from the magazine's current and previous issues (along with a handy link to a new online subscription form). If you're not familiar with ShopSmart, you should definitely take a look. The featured item on the site right now is ShopSmart's guide to great web sites for holiday shopping. Among the picks:

• BuyDig.com, for electronics
• Oliebollen.com for kids
• Crane.com for stationery
• Taschen.com for books

Check out the full list here.

Cyber Monday record: $733 million

As expected, online sales on "Cyber Monday," November 26th, hit a new record, of $733 million, according to numbers released by ComScore. However, despite marking the first day in which total ecommerce sales broke $700 million, Cyber Monday's record isn't likely to last for long. As it did last year, that number is expected to be eclipsed shortly by even higher one-day figures. "We expect that a number of individual shopping days during the coming weeks will surpass the Cyber Monday total, with some days potentially surpassing $800 million," said comScore chairman Gian Fulgoni. That number still doesn't come close to Black Friday's sales figures, which some put as high as $10 billion.

Top 5 Cyber Monday myths

If you didn't get your fill of shopping this weekend, you've still got today, Cyber Monday, to hunt for bargains. Actually, you've got a few weeks, though it is worth checking out some of the deals being touted today. Before clicking that "Buy" button, however, be sure to review our Top 5 Cyber Monday myths:

1. You can get the best deals today.
Yes, there are some great deals to be had if you shop right now. Dozens of stores are offering free shipping and discounts on purchases. But many of those offers don't end today. For example, at the top of the official Cyber Monday Web site (sponsored by the National Retail Federation, which created the "holiday" two years ago) is a link to Apple's online store offering free shipping on all purchases with the tag "today only." However, Apple routinely offers free shipping for orders over $50, so unless you're planning on picking up something for less than that (not an easy task, given that the cheapest new iPod is $79), there's no reason to hop online and buy it today. Similar issues apply with many other merchants, so be sure to read the fine print before you rush into a purchase.

2. Cyber Monday is the busiest day for online shopping.
Sure, it's busy. In fact, according to ComScore networks, last year's Cyber Monday was a record day, with $608 million in online sales. But by December 25th, that record had been broken over 10 times, with the trophy going to December 12th, at $667 million.

3. If you don't shop today, hot products will be sold out.
This one's tricky. Yes, some hot items may sell out today, or over the next few days. And, the closer you get to the holidays, the more likely it is that some "must-have" gifts might be harder to come by. So, if there's anything you absolutely have to buy, and you're afraid it's going to sell out quickly, go ahead and place that order soon — though in most cases, that doesn't mean today.

4. You should shop online today if you want to get your gifts before the holidays.
Because Christmas falls on a Tuesday this year, you can order gifts from many retailers as late as December 18th and still get them delivered on time using standard shipping (and some offer overnight shipping as late as December 22nd). However, if you're shopping for Chanukah, you may want to get busy. The Festival of Lights starts next Tuesday.

5. If you shop at work today, your boss is not going to be pleased.
Sorry, this one isn't a myth. According to the National Retail Federation, 54 percent of workers will shop at work today. Headhunters Challenger, Gray & Christmas (yes, that really is their name) estimate that workplace shopping may cost the economy almost $500 million in lost productivity. So, if you must shop today, do it on your lunch break, so both you and your boss will save a few bucks. (And before you shop, be sure to check out these tips from ShopSmart!)

Black Friday and the Web are shopping solutions for holiday procrastinators

If you're not among the five percent of consumers who have completed their holiday shopping, you're in good company. We're just days  away from Black Friday (the day after Thanksgiving, when retailers roll out the red carpet early and roll down their prices), and nearly two-thirds of holiday shoppers have yet to crack open their wallets. That's one of the findings of the most recent survey by the Consumer Reports National Research Center. In the survey conducted earlier this month, less than half of women (46 percent) and less than a third of men (30 percent) had gotten a start on their gift buying.

Some of those shoppers are planning to storm the stores on Black Friday. Others, however, prefer to shop in the quiet of their homes — or sometimes quietly at work — by visiting online retailers. Whatever the venue, clothing is top of the list for most Black Friday shoppers (79 percent) followed by electronics (70 percent).

Small gadgets like iPods and other MP3 players, video game systems and digital cameras are the most coveted electronics items, but a lot of big flat-panel TVs will be carted out of the stores as well. And this year women seem almost as keen on them as men. Almost as many women (45 percent) as men (49 percent) who plan to buy a flat-panel TV said they are considering one 42 inches or larger. Here are some other major findings:

Black Friday
More shoppers plan to take advantage of so-called Black Friday doorbusters this year than last, with 24 percent of respondents saying they'll brave the crowds, up from 20 percent last year. Respondents in the 18-to-34 age bracket will help make it a big shopping day, with 34 percent planning to hit the stores.

Black Friday shoppers say their gift lists include clothing (79 percent), electronics (70 percent), toys (64 percent), gift cards (58 percent), jewelry (40 percent), small appliances (35 percent) and recreational or fitness equipment (23 percent).

To get the advertised specials, 12 percent of respondents say they plan to stake out a place in line waiting for the store to open. Last year 14 percent of those asked queued up to get a bargain.

Online shopping
The survey also showed a growing preference for shopping online instead of standing in line. More than two-fifths of adults (42 percent) will shop online this year with more women joining the gift-clicking crowd (41 percent this year vs. 37 percent last year). The main allure, those surveyed said, is convenience (48 percent) but some shoppers say they go online for better selection (12 percent) and better prices (11 percent).

Most online consumers shop from home (95 percent), but among those surveyed who work full-time, 21 percent said they shop from work. Of those, 15 percent admitted to shopping during work hours.

Evenings are the most popular time of day to shop online, especially for males (63 percent) and consumers ages 18 to 34 (64 percent). Three-quarters of online shoppers do not have a day of the week when they typically shop but for those who do, shopping online peaks with 43 percent of respondents shopping the Web on Saturdays, followed by 20 percent on Sundays, 11 percent on Fridays and lesser numbers the rest of the week.

Does shopping online save time? Apparently not. Those with Internet access from home will spend about 11 hours shopping online and that's about the same amount of time — 10 hours — as the general public.

Flat-panel TVs
Nearly one in 11 adults is planning to purchase a flat-panel TV for the holidays. Of those, 54 percent expressed a preference for an LCD television and 29 percent plan to purchase a plasma. The rest were unsure what type to buy. That uncertainty, however, was not as evident when respondents were asked what size screen they plan to get — 47 percent plan to buy a screen 42 inches or larger.

While size mattered more to men (54 percent) than women (36 percent) last year, this year the gap has narrowed with men (49 percent) and women (45 percent) setting their sights on a screen 42 inches or larger.

The gap also narrowed in what men and women expect to pay for a flat-panel TV. Last year men were willing to pay an average of $1,700 for a flat-panel, which was $240 more than women on average. This year men are still planning on paying more but on average only $110 more than women expect to pay. Prices have fallen and this year consumers expect to pay up to $1,300 for a flat-panel.

No longer just a guy thing, flat-panel TVs have a stronger appeal to women this year. Among married couples, the top reason men want a flat-panel is for a better picture (44 percent) while the key reason for women is that it frees up floor space (27 percent) followed by it's something her partner really wanted (24 percent).

Eight percent of respondents who do not plan to buy a flat-screen TV before the holidays said they plan to buy one afterwards. The reason, most said, is that it was too much money to spend right now (40 percent). Last year, 31 percent of consumers who planned post-holiday flat-screen purchases said they did so because they expected prices to drop. This year only 22 percent of respondents have that expectation.

Methodology: The Consumer Reports National Research Center conducted a telephone survey of a nationally representative probability sample of telephone households. 1,009 interviews were completed among adults aged 18 and over. Interviewing took place Nov. 1-4. The margin of error is +/- 3% points at a 95% confidence level.

Recalled toys still being sold online

A while ago when discussing toy recalls, we mentioned that some of the toys might still be appearing in thrift shops and on eBay. Now a new study from MarkMonitor bears that out. They have found recalled toys on eBay and other sites including iOffer.com, Alibaba.com and Made-in-China.com. The toys are gone from most stores, but online, where different jurisdictions have different standards, some recalled toys can be easily ordered. Some of these sites also ship in bulk, so the products could still wind up in some small retailers. Most of the listings (83 percent) ship from the U.S. The research firm saw more than 1,100 listings for the toys daily and about 8 percent carried enough information, such as product numbers, to leave no doubt that they were recalled items. Most of the listings, 79 percent, were at  Made-in-China.com, 13 percent were at iOffer and 8 percent were at Alibaba. The Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC)  has been working with eBay to stop the auctions but dealing with the other sites has become an issue. iOffer has a way to submit issues but it is more difficult. If you are concerned about a toy that you think might be questionable, check with the CPSC for the latest recall information.

For more about recalls, check in with Consumer Reports on Safety.

Survey: Free shipping will be a major online promotion

What promotion would you like online retailers to offer this holiday season? The results of the 2007 eHoliday Study, conducted by BizRate Research for Shop.org and Shopzilla, indicate that almost two-thirds of online shoppers says that they are hoping for free shipping. And it seems like they'll get their wish. The same survey reports that 78.6% of retailers plan to offer free shipping with conditions (conditions include free shipping for certain items or a certain dollar amount). Other shipping offers include free shipping upgrades, discounted shipping and free shipping without conditions. You can also expect other promotions retailers including online-only sales, early shopper discounts, repeat-buyer discounts and special promotions for referring a friend.

Retailers are also planning to make the links between their stores and websites more direct than ever before. Four out of five online retailers with physical stores say they will offer in-store advertising for their websites and email registration for customers who do not yet subscribe. Many also plan to have salespeople be able to place an online order for a customer or let customers order online from the store themselves through in-store web kiosks.

Retailers ask for help with online crime

Could the things you buy via eBay be stolen? At a hearing of the House Judiciary Committee's subcommittee on crime, terrorism and homeland security, retailers asked Congress to require Internet auction sites to share information on high-volume sellers. The merchants say that criminals steal large amounts of a product and then sell it online. Popular items stolen include over-the-counter drugs and personal care items from drug and grocery stores, and clothes, gift cards and electronics from other stores. The items are then resold on eBay and other sites or in local flea markets. Tim Hammonds, president and chief executive officer of the Food Marketing Institute, says that the gangs of thieves steal up to $30 billion in merchandise a year. 

The concern for consumers isn't just the ethics of buying stolen goods. Products that are temperature or safety-sensitive such as infant formula or cold medicines may not be stored properly, which could cause health risks for the buyers of these items.

One possible solution being floated is to require sellers to post the serial numbers of items for sale, much as sellers of cars post vehicle identification numbers. Experts worry however, that thieves would just make up numbers. Another idea is to make high-volume sellers offer more information about themselves such as their names, addresses and telephone numbers on product listings, but sellers are often reticent to make than type of information public. Retailers say that to them what is most important is that the auction websites work with their investigators, not just law enforcement, to help curb these crimes.

Retailer websites getting summer makeovers

Perhaps as a response to the statistics showing that online shopping is slowing, several major retailers including Victoria's Secret Direct, Linens 'n Things, Aerosoles and Edwards Luggage are sprucing up their websites this summer adding enhanced functionality that embraces Web 2.0 concepts of interactivity.

They're not alone. The RIS Retail Technology Study reveals that over half of retailers upgrading their web sites over the next two years are seeking to make sites more interactive and easy to use. Some of the improvements that online retailers are looking at include more logical search and navigation, finely tuned recommendations, product comparisons and reviews, live chat and the formation of social communities.  The new Aerosoles site for example, will include advanced shoe imaging and photo manipulation control and specialized search and navigation designed specifically for shoe inventory. Customer satisfaction on the web is also important to these retailers. Ace Hardware's website measures the satisfaction of customers both when they are browsing the site and after they have bought a product. They can use this information to help make changes on the website. Like the upgrades that take place in traditional bricks-and-mortar stores, what matters most is that the shopper has a pleasant experience and comes back again.

How to buy and sell more safely on eBay

Just about everyone I know has bought something on eBay at one time or another. But there are pitfalls to the system, and almost half of eBay buyers surveyed by the Consumer Reports National Research Center said they’d encountered deceptions. This month we have taken an in-depth look at the most popular auction service along with some tips to help avoid eBay problems.

When we recently asked more than 2,500 subscribers to ConsumerReports.org about eBay purchases in the past year, they told us that the most important step in eBay purchasing is to check the seller’s percentage of positive feedback. Matt Halprin, eBay’s vice president of global trust and safety policy, recommends trading with members who have a high positive feedback score. You should be looking for at least a 99 percent rating. Another way to protect yourself is to check whether the seller has changed identities. If the user’s ID has changed within the past 30 days, an icon will appear on the listing page. You can also check earlier switching by looking at the seller info. Click on the feedback score, then on More Options and View ID History and any past names used on eBay will appear. Also checking out what the seller has sold in the past and verifying the seller's email, physical address or phone number can help. A seller who is vague or does not respond should be avoided.

If you are shopping for a particular item, especially a collectible, it helps to do your homework. Check out comparison shopping websites to see whether the price the seller is listing is in the item's typical price range. This can also help you avoid counterfeit items as designer goods selling at low discount prices can often be fakes. Doing the research ahead of time allows you to confidently establish your top price so that you don't get caught in a bidding war. Using proxy bidding, in which you place your maximum bid and your bid is bumped up each time, can help you stick to your budget.

Our guide to eBay also includes advice on avoiding counterfeit merchandise and tips for selling on eBay that will help you avoid some of the common problems some sellers encounter. After all, just about everyone I know who started off as an eBay buyer also turned into an eBay seller at some point.

Online shopping growth slowing

Over the past few years it seemed like the sky was the limit when it came to online shopping. Each the numbers grew and grew as more people discovered the joys of click and spend. But recent data indicates that online commerce has slowed in some key categories such as books, office supplies, beauty products and computer peripherals. Analysts say the trend is here to stay and point to the recent decision by Dell to sell PCs at Wal-Mart stores as a sign that selling online is no longer as successful as it once was.

The numbers for Internet sales are still impressive, and are expected to reach $116 billion this year, but that's still just 5% of all retail sales. The threat of online sales has caused retail stores to step up their game, making stores brighter and more fun to shop in. Online fatigue has also set in; some shoppers queried tend to view shopping online as being more of a task and less of a pleasure or stress reliever the way that in-person shopping is for some people. Because online shopping takes place on a computer it can often seem like work, while an afternoon in the mall is seen as recreation.

The future of online shopping may lie in what is known as the hybrid model, the combination of being able to buy online and pick up the goods at the store. Many of the big box stores now have this sort of service. Consumers are also adopting a bit of a hybrid shopping strategy, deciding to buy some things online and others in person. Unless online retailers  make virtual browsing more enticing, the division between online shopping and  in-store shopping will remain one in which the more mundane shopping chores are relegated to the computer and the shop-for-fun moments will continue to take place in person.

See also: ShopSmart's complete guide to online shopping