April 17, 2009

Prices are falling, isn't that a good thing?

The government's March report on consumer prices registered an annual drop, a first in over 50 years, but that might not be good news for cash-strapped consumers, economist Nouriel Roubini told Consumer Reports.

Roubini, a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, warned that deflation could cause more problems for an already struggling economy.

"There are different types of deflation. There is good deflation and there is bad deflation. And we are now in a period of bad deflation," Roubini said. "Right now there is too much supply and not enough demand."

More from our interview with Roubini:

Part 1: It’s not all bad news

Part 2: Surviving the next year


— James Klatell

April 16, 2009

New unemplyment claims fall by 53,000

The number of new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 53,000 for the week ending April 11, the Labor Department reported Thursday, with 610,000 people seeking benefits.

Over 6 million people were on the unemployment rolls for the prior week, an weekly increase of 172,000, the government's estimates show.

According to the Labor Department, the highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending March 28 were in Michigan (8.0 percent), Oregon (7.9), Rhode Island (7.1), Idaho (7.0), Wisconsin (7.0), Pennsylvania (6.7), Nevada (6.2), Alaska (6.0), Montana (6.0), and Vermont (5.9).


— James Klatell

April 15, 2009

Consumer prices show first annual drop since 1955

The Consumer Price Index, the government's measure of food, energy, and other costs, fell unexpectedly in March.

After seasonal adjustments, the rate fell 0.1 percent in March, according to the government's data.

The index has decreased 0.4 percent over the last year, the first 12 month decline since August 1955, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

The Labor Department said the decrease was due to falling energy prices, which were 3 percent lower in March than in February.

Food also cost less in March. With a decrease of 0.1 percent, the food index is at virtually the same level as October 2008, the numbers show.


— James Klatell

April 09, 2009

Number of new unemployment claims still high but down a bit

The Labor Department reports that 654,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed in the week ending April 4, showing a drop of 20,000 claims from the prior weeks estimate of 674,000.

The same week one year ago, the number of new claims was only 358,000.

About 5.84 million people were on the unemployment rolls for the week ending March 28, the Labor Department's numbers show. That's 95,000 more than the week before.


— James Klatell

April 06, 2009

Watching the economy

The jobless numbers were bad last week, but wait -- there's more economic news to digest this week. Here's how you can watch out for signs of life in the economy yourself. The stock markets are closed Friday for Good Friday observances.

Company earnings
On Tuesday, the earnings reports for the first quarter kick off with Alcoa, the aluminum giant. Most analysts don't expect any great news; instead it could be a quick read on whether companies have hit bottom and can start clawing back. Washington Post

Unemployment
The weekly jobless claims are put out Thursday by the U.S. Labor Department and the picture may not be pretty, as company layoffs continue.
If you are worried about losing your job, our Money blog has some tips on work life and the downturn.

Store sales
Also on Thursday, retailers will release numbers that will show whether consumers are opening their wallets. They're predicting basically flat sales, which could be good news. WSJ


— Robert Tiernan

April 05, 2009

Administration strikes cautious economic tone as G.M.'s new C.E.O. makes the Sunday rounds

General Motors' new C.E.O., Fritz Henderson, appeared this morning on NBC's Meet the Press and CNN's State of the Union to say that G.M. would survive as a company, even though bankruptcy loomed as a viable option. Henderson took the reigns at G.M. after the Administration asked former-C.E.O. Rick Wagoner to resign.

Henderson said that G.M. was focused on quickly returning to profitability so that they could repay the taxpayer's money.

"The day we took money from the taxpayer was one of the -- one of the most difficult days of certainly my career and of the history of General Motors," he said. "We need to respect the fact that we need to look after the taxpayer, we need to justify to the consumer and the taxpayer that we’re going to succeed going forward. And one of the -- one of the happiest days of my future career is going to be the day we pay the loans back."

Henderson refused to rule out the possibility of bankruptcy, saying that the company would do whatever was necessary to meet the goals set by the President's Task Force on the Auto Industry.

"Now we’re 55 days, not 60 days away -- and we either accomplish this job outside of bankruptcy in the short term; or alternatively, if it’s necessary, we’ll go into bankruptcy in order to get this job done," he said.

White House Senior Advisor stressed on Fox News Sunday that G.M. still had much work to do. "Whether it comes through some sort of structured bankruptcy or another process," he said, "there is no doubt that for General Motors to survive and prosper, as we all want them to, they’re going to have to do serious restructuring."

Speaking to the broader economy, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner stressed on CBS' Face the Nation that even as the economy recovers, it may take some time for the unemployment rate to fall.

"The typical pattern of recoveries," he explained, "is that growth recovers, growth starts to turn positive, people start to spend more, people -- businesses hire more, they invest more, before you see unemployment peak. That’s the crude reality of recoveries."

Geithner also left open the possibility that the government would ask bank executives to resign.

"If, in the future, banks need exceptional assistance in order to get through this, then we’ll make sure that assistance comes with conditions, not just to protect the tax payer but to make sure this is the kind of restructuring necessary for them to emerge stronger," he said. "Where that requires a change of management of the board, we’ll do that."

Geithner also emphatically denied reports that the Administration was working to circumvent Congress' restrictions on executive pay.

"Our obligation is to apply the laws that Congress just passed on executive comp," he said. "And we’re going to do that."

The Sunday talk shows also discussed North Korea's failure this morning to launch a missile that could deliver a payload into orbit. Susan Rice, the U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., appeared on ABC's This Week before heading to New York for an emergency meeting of the Security Council.

"Our assessment is that their pursuit of a missile capability is of grave concern and that their aim is to achieve the capability to deliver a weapon as potentially as -- to North America. I think we have to look at exactly what transpired today and make a new assessment of the consequences," she said.


— Tricia Perry

April 04, 2009

Actual U.S. savings rate may have hit 6% in February

Savings Swing BusinessWeek is reporting that the actual savings rate for most Americans may have risen to 6.4% in February, a significant rise from last year when the savings rate hovered near zero.

The official statistics from the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that personal spending fell by 0.4%, and that the savings rate rose to 4.2%. Those figures, however treat as spending fixed costs like healthcare and education over which consumers have little control. With those categories removed, it appears that "pocketbook spending" fell by 3.1%, and that the savings rate hit 6.4%.

The savings rate has historically hovered near zero as Americans borrowed more than they earned.


— Tricia Perry

April 03, 2009

Industry study: Consumer bankruptcy filings up 41% from last year

Forty-one percent more consumers filed for bankruptcy in March 2009 than in March 2008, according to an analysis by a loan industry group.

Last month there were 121,413 consumers who filed for bankruptcy, the American Bankruptcy Institute said, noting that number is also a 24 percent jump from February.

“Given the great financial stress facing U.S. households today, the March numbers are consistent with our prediction of over 1.4 million consumer filings for 2009,” ABI Executive Director Samuel Gerdano said in a statement.

If you're worried about your personal finances, check with CR's Money team for advice on protecting yourself during the recession.


— James Klatell

Unemployment rate hits 8.5% in March

The job market continued to struggle in March with 694,000 people joining the ranks of the unemployed, according to new numbers from the Labor Department.

The government's survey found a total of 13.2 million people out of work in March, bringing the unemployment rate up to 8.5 percent.

That's the highest unemployment level since November of 1983.

Since the current recession began in December 2007, 5.1 million jobs have been lost, the Labor Department reported, and nearly two-thirds of those jobs have been cut in the last five months.


— James Klatell

April 02, 2009

New claims for unemployment hit highest level since 1982

The number of people filing initial claims for unemployment benefits jumped to 669,000 in the week ending March 28, according to new estimates from the Labor Department.

That's 12,000 claims more the week before, making it the highest level since October 1982.

Nearly 5.73 million Americans were already on the unemployment rolls in the week ending March 21, according to the Labor Department estimates.


— James Klatell

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