March 31, 2009

Are retail stocks signaling a recovery?

stock ticker Is a jump in the share prices of some retailers an early sign that the economy has seen the worst of the recession, and an upswing is just around the bend? That’s a possibility, according to a TheStreet.com report. The article points out that the S%P Retail Exchange-Traded Fund hit a low of $14.81 back in November, and is now trading at close to $24, a gain of 60 percent in just four months. At the same time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 10 percent. “If retailers are indeed among the early indicators that the economy has reached a bottom, the four-month turnaround in the retail sector could be an upbeat sign,” the article states. The fund features a wide range of retailers, including Walmart, Target and Amazon.com.

"All of the most leading indicators of a Main Street bottoming are basically seen first on Wall Street," James Paulsen, chief investment strategist with Wells Capital Management, told TheStreet.com. "So when you get a relative outperformance of retail stocks, it's suggesting that the worst may be over for the consumer when these stocks are pricing in a recovery. It's a pretty strong indicator."

Of course, the performance of the fund is no guarantee that the economy is about to turn around. After all, as we reported earlier today, consumer confidence remains near record lows. And at least one retailer isn’t likely to see its fortunes rise anytime soon: Gottschalks, a 105-year-old regional chain with over 60 stores, was sold to liquidators yesterday. Going-out-of-business sales could start as soon as this week, and the chain expects to be completely liquidated by July.


— Marc Perton

Booksellers find CPSIA implementation solutions

Server.np Publishers Weekly has a roundup of the ways booksellers have begun to implement the Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act, and points out that "things have calmed down significantly," since key portions of the law involving lead content in products meant for children went into effect on February 10th. Most booksellers, according to PW, have begun to follow CPSC guidelines that exempt children's books printed after 1985 from testing for lead. This has allowed them to keep such books on their shelves.

Many have also begun moving older children's books to their "collectibles" sections, which allows them to continue selling them without testing them for lead content. One sticking point for some booksellers has been "book-plus" products, which often include toys or other non-book products. Some stores have stopped selling them altogether, and have stopped accepting used book-plus products from donors.

The potential risk of lead in older children's books was highlighted by a test conducted by an environmental consultant and blogger, who found that a 1947 printing of a Mother Goose book contained 2,400 parts-per-million of lead, well above the 600 ppm limit currently required under the CPSIA.

PW points out that the CPSC has offered "conflicting advice" and that booksellers remain "confused" about the best way to implement the law. Consumers Union, the non-profit publisher of Consumer Reports, agrees. In a letter to President Obama earlier this year, CU and other consumer groups that support the CPSIA, urged the president to address the "climate of confusion" by appointing "effective leadership at the CPSC," to "implement the critical new product safety law and begin to tackle the myriad of issues facing this agency."


— Marc Perton

Sebelius says health reform would be her mission if confirmed

Senate hearings for Kathleen Sebelius to be confirmed as the Secretary of Health and Human Services began today in the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, a mostly friendly panel for the Kansas governor to face.

Sen. Ted Kennedy, a long-time advocate for health care reform and chair of the committee, kicked off the proceedings by praising Sebelius.

"I’ve benefitted from the best of medicine, but we have too many uninsured Americans. We have sickness care and not health care. We have too much paperwork and bureaucracy. Costs are out of control. But today we have an opportunity like never before to reform health care," Kennedy, who is battling cancer, said. "And we need a secretary of health who has the vision, the skill, and the knowledge to help us get there. Governor Kathleen Sebelius has those traits and more."

Sebelius said in her opening statement that she would fight to achieve one of President Barack Obama's campaign promises and early initiatives.

"Should I be confirmed, health reform would be my mission--as it is the president’s--along with the tremendous responsibility of running this critical department," she said.

But Sebelius also said she would work to improve the Centers For Disease Control and the Food and Drug Administration, which has been much criticized after several disease outbreaks caused by tainted food. (Read about the latest recall of pistachios.)

"As Americans focus more on prevention and leading healthier lifestyles, HHS must live up to its responsibility to protect the public from health risks," Sebelius said. "It is a core responsibility of HHS, through the FDA, to ensure the food we eat and the medications we take are safe."

Continue reading "Sebelius says health reform would be her mission if confirmed" »


— James Klatell

FTC offers financial help with new Web site

FTC money matters The Federal Trade Commission has launched Money Matters, a new Web site to help people struggling through the recession.

"Practicing positive, tried and true money management techniques – and learning how to recognize and avoid some 'ripped from the headlines' consumer scams and rip-offs – can help you weather tough economic times," the site tells visitors.

According to the announcement:

Money Matters offers short, practical tips, videos, and links to reliable resources for more information on topics like credit repair, debt collection, job-hunting and jobs scams, vehicle repossession, managing mortgage payments, and foreclosure rescue scams.

If you're looking for more tips on saving money and living in a tough economy, visit CR's Money Blog


— James Klatell

Today In Our Test Labs: The toilet paper video edition

Crack jokes at our expense if you want, but Consumer Reports tests toilet paper.

Everybody uses it. Everybody buys it. So Consumer Reports tests it.

Our team looks at not only the feel and strength of the paper, but how easy it is to open the packaging and how hard it is to start a roll.

Bottom line, we do all this to find the softest, strongest toilet paper for the best value.

UPDATE: Our new ratings-based report on toilet paper is online now and appears in the May 2009 issue of Consumer Reports.

For more news and tips on keeping your home running smoothly, visit our Home & Garden Blog.

You can watch more of our testing at the Consumer Reports video hub.


— James Klatell

Consumer confidence holds steady near record lows

Consumer confidence barely inched up in March but hovered around all-time lows, the Conference Board's monthly study found.

The Consumer Confidence Index was measured at 26.0 in March, up from 25.3 the month before.

The Conference Board identified the main culprit behind Americans economic worries: job cuts.

"Apprehension about the outlook for the economy, the labor market and earnings continues to weigh heavily on consumers' attitudes," Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement. "Looking ahead, consumers remain extremely pessimistic about the short-term future and do not foresee a turnaround in economic conditions over the coming six months."

Only 9.1 percent in the survey anticipated that business conditions would improve in the next six months, although that's up from the 8.5 percent who said the same thing in February's survey.

The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS.


— James Klatell

Consumer Reports Morning Update

Good Tuesday morning. Here are the top stories our editors are keeping an eye on today. Check back with ConsumerReports.org throughout the day for updates and analysis on these topics and many more.

It's the morning after for General Motors and Chrysler, which were given a short time table for massive restructuring by President Barack Obama. CR's Cars Blog has the information you need about the announcement and about the cars these companies produce.

White House Thinking About The Bankruptcy Option:
The Obama administration, wading deeply into the U.S. auto industry, is weighing a fix for GM and Chrysler that would divide their "good" and "bad" assets and send the auto makers into bankruptcy to purge their biggest problems. The potential move would transform two companies that have helped define U.S. industrial power over the past century. (Wall Street Journal)

Rather than a bad thing, an appearance before a bankruptcy judge could actually be the key to saving the deeply troubled automaker, experts on the auto industry and administration officials suggest. A carefully controlled bankruptcy, they contend, would help free GM from crushing obligations to its bondholders, unions and other stakeholders (Los Angeles Times)

Survey Says:
Chrysler and General Motors have adamantly resisted the bankruptcy route, fearing that consumers would be reluctant to buy cars from a bankrupt automaker. Well, according to a new pulse survey from the Consumer Reports National Research Center, they’re right! More than three-quarters (78 percent) of respondents said they were unlikely to consider buying a new car from an automaker in bankruptcy; 64 percent were very unlikely. (CR Cars Blog)

Wall Street's Reaction:
Stock markets slumped early and stayed negative yesterday because of fears of bankruptcies in the auto industry and fresh concern over the health of the financial sector. The three major U.S. indicators closed down about 3 percent. (Washington Post)

Some In Detroit Are Smiling:
With each passing day, Ford Motor Co.'s determination to forgo federal loans is giving the company a sharper edge over its domestic rivals, who must now answer to the federal government. While GM and Chrysler were scolded Monday by President Obama's auto task force, Ford remains in control of its destiny and aims to keep it that way. (Detroit Free Press)

Detroit's Loss Could Be Seoul's Gain:
In the worst U.S. car market in 28 years, Hyundai Motor Co. is on a roll. The Seoul-based automaker has boosted sales in the U.S. The Genesis, Hyundai’s first luxury car for the U.S. market, won top honors at the Detroit car show in January and in three months the company will bring out its first hybrid in Korea. The stock has surged 34 percent this year. (Bloomberg)

Change Doesn't Come Easy Or Free:
A group of taxi drivers and medallion owners is suing the City of Boston to block the requirement that all 1,825 cabs in the city be hybrids by 2015, saying the measure could put many of them out of business. The plaintiffs say they do not oppose hybrid cars and generally favor the greening of the fleet. But they bristle at a regulation that they must buy new hybrids instead of less expensive used ones, and want the city to delay the changeover. (Boston Globe)

Health Nominee On The Hill:
President Barack Obama's second choice for Health and Human Services secretary is getting ready to make her Senate debut. Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius is expected to get a friendly reception from the Senate's Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee on Tuesday. It was unclear whether the committee chairman, Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, D-Mass., who's been battling brain cancer, would preside. (Associated Press)

Consumers Union's Take:
CU, the publisher of Consumer Reports, will be watching the HHS confirmation hearings closely. DeAnn Friedholm, campaign director for health care reform, said, "Governor Sebelius will make an excellent secretary of HHS, and we’re hopeful for a swift confirmation so she can immediately start fixing our nation’s broken health care system."

The Air We Breathe:
In its most sweeping effort to determine whether toxic chemicals permeate the air schoolchildren breathe, the Environmental Protection Agency is expected to announce plans today to monitor the air outside 62 schools in 22 states. Texas and Ohio have the most schools on the list, with seven each; Pennsylvania has six. (USA Today)

FDA Warns About Pistachios:
Stop eating pistachio nuts, the FDA says. They may carry food-poisoning salmonella bacteria. The new salmonella scare -- this time in pistachio nuts -- has led Kroger Co. to recall pistachios sold in 31 states. Because the nuts came from a large shipment of 1 million pounds of pistachio nuts sold to 36 different wholesalers nationwide, more recalls are expected, says David Acheson, MD, the FDA's associate commissioner for foods. (WebMD)

So far no illnesses have been associated with the recall. The source of the salmonella has not been identified although a television station in Sacramento, California is reporting that a pistachio supplier is under investigation by the California Department of Public Health. (CR Safety Blog)

Selling You On Recessionomics:
The recession has given the marketing world a twist: ads that boast about helping the newly unemployed. Some of the nation's savviest marketers also have figured out that the best way to get folks who fear job loss to spend money is to promise them a rebate, refund or special deal if they are laid off shortly after the purchase. (USA Today)

How's He Doing?
The number of Americans who believe that the nation is headed in the right direction has roughly tripled since Barack Obama's election, and the public overwhelmingly blames the excesses of the financial industry, rather than the new president, for turmoil in the economy, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. (Washington Post)

Adding It All Up:
The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have spent, lent or guaranteed $12.8 trillion, an amount that approaches the value of everything produced in the country last year, to stem the longest recession since the 1930s. The money works out to $42,105 for every man, woman and child in the U.S. and 14 times the $899.8 billion of currency in circulation. The nation’s gross domestic product was $14.2 trillion in 2008. (Bloomberg)

I Meant To Get To This One Earlier:
According to Joseph R. Ferrari, a professor of psychology at DePaul University in Chicago, some 20 percent of us are chronic procrastinators. Although the perplexing question remains why so many of us engage in such evident self-sabotage, a recent study suggests that consciously changing the way we think about things we have to do -- approaching them as concrete steps rather than abstract ideas -- may help even chronic procrastinators. (Washington Post)

— James Klatell

Injured workers find a "world of hurt"

Workerscomp The New York Times starts a new series today examining the challenges faced by injured workers in New York State, as they deal with the vast bureaucracy that is the state's Workers' Compensation Board. According to the paper, which spent 18 months investigating the issue, the $5.5 billion agency is a "subbasement of the legal world," that "struggles to treat workers with due speed, protect employers from fraud or mute tensions in the workplace."

The difficulties facing workers, who can "wait months or years for money or care" don't come as a surprise to anyone who has followed the issue. In 2000, Consumer Reports published its own investigation, "Workers Comp: Falling down on the job," which found many of the same issues affecting workers across the country.

According to our report, in many cases, medical care wasn't available "without a struggle." The system, designed to help workers who suffer work-related injuries get the care they need, instead forced "ill and injured workers now [to] fight a series of battles: first, to get medical care; next, to withstand exams by insurance-company doctors who have an incentive to find excuses not to pay; then, to get a fair assessment of any permanent disability; and finally, to win a hearing if there’s a dispute."

Judging from the article in the Times, the past decade has brought little improvement. Injured wokers face a system that is "dysfunction and ... adversarial." Across the state, "in about one in six cases, insurers dispute that injuries are real or were suffered on the job. Until recently, these cases had averaged nearly nine months to resolve. And many of them remain unresolved years later."

Continue reading "Injured workers find a "world of hurt"" »


— Marc Perton

March 30, 2009

Around Consumer Reports: Monday on our blogs

Here's a look at the blog posts on ConsumerReports.org.

Babies & Kids Blog
Cars Blog
Electronics Blog
Health Blog
Home & Garden Blog
Money Blog
Safety Blog
ShopSmart Tip Sheet

— James Klatell

Study: Weak economy slows but can't stop growth in Americans' drinking

There aren't many industries which can claim better sales in 2008 than in 2007, but Americans bought more alcoholic drinks in a year of economic downturn than they did the year before, according to a new industry study.

Overall sales and consumption of spirits, beer, and wine did rise in 2008, according to according to data from The Beverage Information Group.

The booze business did see a slowdown, however, and the poor economy is to blame, the numbers show, as premium drinks took a hit and people bought more value-priced beverages.

Categories to take the largest hit in 2008 were imported beer and wine. Beer imports went from growing 12% in 2006 to 2.8% in 2007 to a 1.2% decline last year.

Wine imports posted an aggregate decline of 1.7% in 2008 due to the effects of the recessionary environment, the weak value of the U.S. dollar and the grape surplus in Australia. While overall wine imports decreased, there were pockets of positive momentum among smaller importing countries like Argentina, Chile and New Zealand.

Sales of light beer were a bright spot, The Beverage Information Group said, with sales growing 2.2 percent, Light beers now represent almost 52 percent of the entire beer market.

Consumer Reports taste tested light beers earlier this year. Click here to see which brew won the battle.

If wine is more your style, we've got ratings and recommendations on different varietals as well as electric corkscrews and wine chillers.


— James Klatell

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