Black Friday survival guide: 11 ways to shop, save, and keep safe

From a one-day event, Black Friday has morphed into shopping four-day extravaganza, and 51 percent of Americans say they plan to hit the mall or the keyboard sometime between the Friday and Monday after Thanksgiving. In fact, shopping activity promises to be equally hectic throughout the weekend, according to Consumer Reports’ latest holiday poll, the second of our three seasonal surveys of the nation’s shopping behavior.

Despite the convenience of online shopping, twice as many shoppers expect to do their Black Friday weekend buying at brick-and-mortar stores vs. the Internet. By and large, they expect the same deals online as they do in stores. What will they be snagging? Based on our poll, seven of 10 consumers will be sniffing out bargains on clothes, electronics (notably video games and accessories), and toys. But they won’t necessarily be buying presents for family, friends, and co-workers. Two-thirds of gift shoppers said they will be looking to treat themselves.

Over the past four years, the percentage of people who shop at stores on Black Friday has been slightly but steadily declining, based on our poll results. At the same time, more consumers are delaying their shopping in general until closer to the holidays. As of Nov. 8, 36 percent of Americans had started buying gifts compared to 38 percent at this time last year. Over the past three years, the percentage of people who began shopping early in November appears to be trending downward, decreasing slightly each year, from a high of 45 percent in 2006.

Regardless of how much shopping you have left to do, here's our advice for Black Friday and beyond: 

Medicare Part D participants: For 2010, you better shop around

Medicare has announced its Part D drug plan costs for 2010. More seniors than ever will be combing through that data to try and find a better deal. Sixteen percent say they are likely to, or are considering, switching plans in 2010, according to a recent survey of seniors by Allsup, a provider of Social Security disability, Medicare and workers' compensation services. That’s a big jump; only five percent have switched since they’ve been eligible for the program.

However, figuring out which program is best for you can be a pain. You may have dozens of private plans to choose from, with different levels of coverage.

But staying put can cost you plenty, in terms of both access to the medicines you take and the amount of money you will spend. Consumers Union has been monitoring the total cost of buying five common drugs in five states since the Part D program began in 2006. Next year Illinois residents, for example, may be able to save more than $2,200 year if they switch to a better plan. Stay stuck in the wrong one, however, and your costs may rise by more than $1,500.

Open enrollment starts November 15 and runs through the end of the year. You can find out how to switch plans (or enroll) by going to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Web site.–Mandy Walker

CR Index: 25% to spend more on personal electronics

A quarter of Americans–24.9 percent–expect to spend more this month on personal electronics, according to the Consumer Reports Index, a composite of five indices measuring consumer behavior, attitudes, and consumption patterns. And short-term plans to purchase major home electronics rose slightly, to 10.7 percent from 10 percent in October, the highest level since June.

In addition, perceived financial problems, including difficulties making credit-card payments and covering medical bills, may be stabilizing, according to the Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker and Stress indices, two components  of the Consumer Reports Index. In the West and South, survey respondents reported fewer troubles in early November than in the prior month. In the Midwest, perceived troubles appeared to be slightly (up 2.4) worse. Northeasterners’ opinions stayed about the same.

Those optimistic results are the bright spots in a report that generally shows consumer plans and attitudes at a slow simmer. Two weeks before the official start of the holiday shopping season, planned purchases were flat or lower in most categories, including appliances, yard and garden goods, cars and homes, according to the Consumer Reports Next-30-Day Retail Index. (The survey underlying the Index was completed before Congress extended and expanded a one-time $8,000 tax credit for new-home buyers.)

Ed Farrell, a director of the Consumer Reports National Researcher Center, which created the Index, posed a cautionary note. “The economy remains in a precarious position where further decline is possible but is slightly less likely,” Farrell said. “Unless consumers can see concrete improvements in their lives and retail activity picks up, any near term recovery is improbable.” 

For more details and information on how the Consumer Reports Index is conducted, click here.

Ready or not, here come the holidays

Although the Halloween decorations may still be tacked to the door and most of us haven’t thought about our Thanksgiving menus, it’s not too early to begin talking about holiday shopping and everything that goes with it – the traffic, the crowds, the long lines, and the deals.

 As you may have read here on the Money blog last week, the results of our first holiday poll, designed to gauge what Americans will be buying this season, how much they’ll be spending, and whether the ongoing economic crisis is dampening their festive spirit, indicate that 2009 is likely to be a carbon copy of last year.

Once again, consumers said they plan to cut back this season. Sixty-five percent of those polled, in fact, said they intend to do less traveling, entertaining, and spending on gifts. That’s on top of the three-quarters of consumers who told us last year they planned on tightening their belts.

It’s easy to understand why so many consumers continue to watch their wallets. Statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reveal that the unemployment is at its highest since April 1983. In October, unemployment rose from 9.8 percent to 10.2 percent, as the ranks of the nation’s out-of-work force swelled by 558,000, to 15.7 million. In retailing alone, more than 40,000 jobs were lost last month.

Despite the grim statistics, Americans remain largely optimistic. Eighty-seven percent of survey respondents said they expect to be at least as happy this holiday season as they were last year; 33 percent are predicting they’ll be even happier. So hope does spring eternal.

While we can’t do much in the cheer department, we can offer advice on how to take advantage of the latest retailing trends in order to stretch your shopping dollars. And that’s what we’ll be doing over the next couple of months. The results of our second poll, due out soon, promises to offer insights into the nation’s shopping habits – the extent to which the Internet is figuring more prominently in our purchasing plans, where consumers think they’ll find the biggest bargains, and the must-have presents on their Black Friday shopping list. We’ll also be identifying the most annoying aspects about holiday shopping, also based on a nationwide survey.

As you put together your shopping list, here are a few tidbits to keep in mind, based on a closer look at the results of our first poll:

 • Gift cards. They’re one of the most popular gifts to give and receive, yet one of four recipients still haven’t used at least one of the cards they were given last year, mainly because they couldn’t find anything they wanted to buy.  Moreover, 65 percent of those who used their gift cards – especially women -- purchased an item that priced in excess of the card’s face value. That explains why retailers push card sales so aggressively.

 • Who doesn’t like clothes? Clothing is the biggest holiday gift category and, like gift cards, people love to give and receive apparel. But survey respondents told us that clothing also tends to disappoint the most. If you want to be a hero for the holidays avoid giving socks, shirts, sweaters, and ties, the least desireable of garments and accessories. Also making the most-reviled list this year for the first time: slippers.

 • New favorites. Most people tend to give and get the same presents year in and year out. But our poll revealed several new items that made the list of gifts respondents said they’d be thrilled to receive: boots, purses, pajamas, and guns. The latter’s not a typo, and we’ll avoid making any value judgment. We’re just reporting the facts.

• Fewer people are planning to give money. Despite the fact that money ranks behind only electronics and gift cards as the present they’d most like to receive, Americans won’t be opening their wallets as wide this season. Only 44 percent are considering giving a cash or check this year vs. 61 percent in 2008.

 • Women more likely to scale back on gifts to others. Here’s a statistic we didn’t see coming. When asked whose gifts do you plan cutting back on to save money, women were more likely than men to target family (including their children), friends, co-workers, and service providers (hair stylist, deliver person, etc) instead of themselves. Men, on the other hand, more willing than women to cross teachers and the family pet off their lists.

Avoiding post-holiday debt: Don't be among the 13.5 million!

This holiday season, it may be more important than ever to avoid impulse buying that leaves you with a holiday debt hangover in the New Year. A survey we conducted in early October showed that six percent of adults, or roughly 13.5 million consumers, were still saddled with debt from last year’s holiday spending.  

Odds are you’ll be paying especially hefty finance charges this year if charging a lot of gifts leaves you carrying a balance on your cards. That’s because many banks are jacking up rates or imposing other finance charges in the form of annual fees before their ability to do so is crimped by federal credit card reform rules that become effective in February. For instance, Wells Fargo recently notified cardholders it plans to raise interest rates by 3 percentage points starting Nov. 30, while Citibank in late October hiked rates for many of its customers to 29.99 percent.

The good news is that many consumers already are making progress in slashing their card debt. A recent Consumer Reports survey found that more than a third of consumers polled said they had paid off and closed a card account this year.  And the Federal Reserve’s latest monthly Consumer Credit Report showed that revolving credit, which is largely card debt, decreased at an annual rate of 13 percent in August, to a total of  $897.6 billion. That’s down from $988.2 billion at the end of 2008.

Tightwad Tod offers some helpful tips on how to avoid holiday debt headaches here.-Andrea Rock

In holiday cutbacks, pets fare better than husbands

A survey on holiday shopping plans released this week by Consumer Reports found that among folks considering trimming their holiday spending this year, women were more likely to cut back on giving to their spouse than to the family pet. Twenty-two percent of women who expected to reduce holiday spending said they'd be spending less on their spouses. That compares with 14 percent planning to trim the fat on Fido's bones. Men, on the other hand, were more even-handed; about the same percentage were willing to cut back on their significant other (17 percent) as on their pet (19 percent).

Perhaps women favor their pets in gift-giving because a cat won't sigh heavily and roll its eyes after getting slippers instead of a GPS. To ensure you've got more left over in your pet budget for the fun stuff, check Consumer Reports Money Adviser's advice on saving on pet expenditures. And here are some tips on buying pet toys. Check this blog next week for more results from the Consumer Reports Holiday Shopping Poll.—Tobie Stanger

The Great Recession: Where's the consumer's voice?

A report recently published by the not-for-profit Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism reveals some interesting biases in the media when covering the Great Recession. For one, the report says that TV, print, radio, Internet and other news media focused an awful lot on players at the top–President Obama and his staffers, federal agencies, and business leaders–as opposed to folks at the bottom of the ladder, often suffering the most. The stimulus package, the banking bailout, and efforts to help the struggling auto industry were the dominant topics. Most coverage took place in New York and Washington, the capitals of finance and government, respectively. And when the stock market started to rise, coverage started to peter out. 

For that reason, I'd like to brag a bit about the monthly Consumer Reports Index, which asks consumers for their sentiment on the state of their own financial well-being. That includes not only what they spent and did over the prior month, but their spending plans for the next month. The index results are based on answers by a nationally representative sample. Stay tuned for the next index, about halfway through the month, for a unique gauge of what's going on close to the ground, not up in the vaulted realms of power.–Tobie Stanger

Consumer Reports Index: Consumers' mood low, troubles rise

Consumer sentiment remains low for many Americans, and consumers are reporting more financial troubles, according to the latest Consumer Reports Index, published today. Lower-income people—those making less than $50,000 a year—are shouldering more financial pain than the rest of the population. And consumers living in the Western part of the U.S report a worse financial outlook than do those in other regions. 

The Consumer Reports Index, a composite of several measures, shows consumer sentiment nationwide at 40.3, rising only slightly from a low, 38.1 last month. When the index is greater than 50, more consumers are feeling positive about their financial situation. 

At the same time, this month's Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker Index, which measures negative household financial events, rose to 66.7, its highest ever. The percentage of consumers who reported negative events dropped slightly, but the total number of negative events was up, from 1.6 to 1.9 per household, the greatest increase in 6 months.

Some details:

• Job losses mounted. The Consumer Reports Employment Index declined markedly in October. The proportion of respondents reporting job losses was 7.7 percent, compared with 5.6 percent last month.

• Lower-income households had more troubles than average. The Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker revealed that more than a quarter (26 percent) were unable to afford afford medical bills or medications in the past 30 days, versus 15.1 percent for all Americans. Twelve percent of this group lost a job or was laid off, compared with 7.7 percent of the general population. Another 12 percent lost medical care or experienced reduced coverage, compared with 7.2 percent of total respondents.   

• Spending stayed the same. The Consumer Reports Past 30-Day Retail Index shows purchases in the past 30 days about the same as in the prior month. The index was up for major appliances, but down for major home electronics and personal electronics. 

• Consumers plan to spend more for electronics, but not for other items. Planned purchases of personal and major electronics were up for October versus the prior month. In general, however, plans for future purchases remained about the same as our measure in September. 

• Sentiment was worst in the West. Consumer sentiment took a dive in the West, down to 32.8. In the North/Central region and the South, sentiment remained even, at 41.9 and 43.2. Residents in the Northeast reported a modest uptick in consumer sentiment, to 42.3.

"The economy is in a precarious position balanced between recovery and further decline," concludes the report, published by the Consumer Reports National Research Center. Without substantial improvements as measured by the Trouble Tracker, Employment and Retail indices, it adds, "it is doubtful that a meaningful consumer recovery will be mounted in this calendar year."

The Consumer Reports Index reflects results of a nationwide, representative survey of Americans conducted last week by the Consumer Reports National Research Center. To read more about the Consumer Reports Index, including how it was conducted, click here.

Halloween '09: Homemade costumes, fewer store-bought sweets

Scary family finances will be spooking a lot of folks this Halloween, according to a recent poll by the National Retail Federation. This year, consumers expect to spend an average $56 on the holiday, compared with $67 last year, the survey found. Nearly a third said the economy was to blame.

Nearly half said they'd buy less candy, while more than a third said they wouldn't add anything new to last year's decorations. Another third said they'd reuse or make costumes. Given the state of many folks' finances, the costume pictured here might be just the ticket.

For more healthful and potentially less-expensive treats, consider this evergreen advice from Consumer Reports Health. And if you've got other ideas for Halloween savings, feel free to comment below.–Tobie Stanger

Consumer Reports Index: Credit card woes hurt consumer sentiment

Despite a rebounding stock market and promising economic indicators, consumers say they are feeling far worse about their finances than they have in the last seven months, according to the Consumer Reports Index for September.  Increased credit card, healthcare, and personal loan issues have contributed to stress levels, with 15.6 percent of Americans experiencing higher credit card interest rates and fees, and 8.5 percent losing health insurance or having their coverage reduced in August. 

On a positive note, consumer reactions showed the economy is no longer in freefall. Retail is stabilizing and consumers showed more interest in shopping for big ticket items like homes and cars. Employment improved significantly in August.  

The monthly Index—actually a composite of several indices—tracks trends in several areas of consumer sentiment, through responses from a nationally representative sample of households polled in August. Here are some of the key findings:

Consumers are facing more economic hardships. The Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker crept up to its highest level in the past seven months with almost 38 percent of Americans experiencing at least one major negative personal finance event in the past 30 days. For the sixth straight month, the ability to afford medical bills or medications remains the most prominent trouble Americans are reporting.

Lower-income households, earning less than $50,000 a year, were hurt most. In the past 30 days:

• 24 percent have been unable to afford medical bills or medications.
• 7.4 percent lost their job or were laid off.
• 12.2 percent lost or have reduced healthcare coverage.
• 14 percent missed a payment on a major bill (not mortgage).

Sentiment is declining. The Consumer Reports Sentiment Index is at the lowest level (38.1) since October ’08. When the index is greater than 50, more consumers are feeling positive about their situation. 

Small signs of life in shopping. The Consumer Reports Retail Index showed that purchasing in the past 30 days was up slightly for personal electronics and small appliances in the month of August compared to July, but flat for all other categories. Planned purchases in September are on par with August. 

Stress is up. When the Consumer Reports Stress Index is more than 50 consumers are feeling more stress than a year ago. It currently stands at 65.7, which is up from a year ago.

To read more about the Consumer Reports Index, including how it was conducted, click here.