Nouriel Roubini: It's not all bad news

This week, we at Consumers Union were fortunate enough to meet with and ask a few questions of Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business (see video). Roubini is now famous—some would say notorious—for anticipating the scope and magnitude of the current recession, which is now nearly 18 months old. He has a reputation for being, shall we say, pessimistic.

The good news: The worst of the credit crisis is behind us. Roubini says the economy is beginning to heal from last fall’s market tumble and the financial system crisis, in large part because of aggressive government fiscal and monetary policy.

The bad news: There’s still some pain ahead. We’re going to lose $3.6 trillion when all is said and done. The nation’s banking system is essentially insolvent. And even if all the government intervention works perfectly, there’s so much to repair that the recession will not end this year. Even in 2010, economic growth will be far from robust. And the nation’s unemployment rate, which will remain high after the recession recedes, may peak at 11 to 12 percent.

And that’s just in the U.S. The slowdown is worse in other major economies like Germany and Japan, Roubini says. Even China can expect only modest growth in 2009.—Chris Horymski

This is the first in a five-part series.

Comments

[robert]

unable to view video?!