Atlantic hurricane activity could be below normal, says NOAA

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration today released a new forecast of below-normal storm activity for the Atlantic hurricane season, and El Niño is responsible for what's expected to be a quieter storm season.

The Atlantic has yet to see its first named storm this year, and the NOAA is forecasting a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 40 percent probability of a below-normal season, and a 10 percent probability of an above-normal season. Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of seven to 11 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes, including one to two major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5) with winds exceeding 111 mph.

The new forecast doesn't mean you don't have to be prepared for an emergency. NOAA officials note that other climate factors associated with the high-hurricane activity era that began in 1995, such as enhanced rainfall over west Africa and warmer tropical Atlantic Ocean water, are still in place. They also stressed that devastating storms, including Hurricane Camille in 1969, occurred in years of high El Niño activity and that slow-starting hurricane seasons can still produce major storms late in the year, such as Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

NOAA officials continue to emphasize the increasing danger of inland flooding, which now accounts for the majority of deaths caused by tropical cyclones. (Watch our video on flood insurance, above.) Use the NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks tool to see how past storms dating back to 1851 have impacted your area.—Gian Trotta | e-mail | Twitter | Forums | Facebook

Essential information: Read "Insuring Your Home: How to Find the Best Coverage for Whatever Comes Your Way" for expert advice on homeowner's coverage. And visit our Storm & Emergency Guide to learn how to prepare for and survive natural disasters.