NOAA update: More active Atlantic hurricane season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released an updated forecast for a more active Atlantic hurricane season, a reminder to review your storm and emergency plans.

“The updated outlook calls for an 85 percent chance of an above-normal season. We’re expecting a lot of activity for the remainder of the year,” says Gerry Bell, Ph.D., the NOAA’s lead seasonal-hurricane forecaster, in a podcast on the NOAA site. “For the season as a whole, we’re expecting 14 to 18 named storms, 7 to 10 hurricanes, and three major hurricanes,

In May, the NOAA had seen a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season—a prediction we covered in an earlier blog posting. But Bell cited new reasons for the updated forecast, including warmer-than-normal Atlantic Ocean temperatures; strong early-season activity season in July, which is a strong indicator to an above-normal remainder of the season; a weak wind shear, which favors hurricane formation; and wind patterns from Africa’s west coast, which make disturbances more likely to strengthen into tropical storms and hurricanes as they move across the Atlantic.

Bell stressed that the seasonal outlook does not predict where hurricanes could make landfall. “The reason is quite simple; when or where a hurricane strikes depends on the weather patterns in place at the time the hurricane approaches, and those weather patterns are just not predictable more than to seven days in advance,” he says.

“By far the most important things people can do is have a hurricane plan,” Bell says. “Time and time again we see that people who have a safety-and-preparedness plan fare better than those who don’t.”

Bell also warns that inland dwellers should also take precautions, as recent hurricanes have been tracking over land for longer periods and producing more inland flooding. “It turns out that inland flooding is now the major cause of deaths from hurricanes,” Bell notes. Watch our video on flood insurance, above.—Gian Trotta

Essential information: Our Storm & Emergency Guide includes step-by-step instructions for hardening your home against natural disasters, covering your financial assets, planning an effective family evacuation, and finding the right flood insurance.