It's the end of Macworld as we know it (but I feel fine)

Steve Job's announcement yesterday that he will be taking a six-month medical leave of absence as Apple's CEO has raised widespread concerns about the company's future. Even before that announcement, while I was still at the Macworld show last week, I found equally widespread concern about the future of the show that has been such a mainstay of Apple's marketing machine.

I spent much of my day last Friday doing an informal poll of key exhibitors selling software, peripherals and services. Of those I polled, in my informal and unscientific effort 17 percent believed Macworld SF would not live past 2010 without Apple as an anchor tenant. Forty-three percent saw little change in store with the current format, while the remaining 40 percent felt that Macworld may change a great deal, with fewer exhibitors, and a greater emphasis on the consumer side of things, along with continuing education for Mac managers. In essence, it will be more about iPhone and less oriented to Mac.

That's the part people forget about:  Macworld is a Conference, as well as an Expo, with four days of sessions on everything from new tricks on Photoshop or Final Cut to learning how to do a podcast. Professional learning and networking is what makes Macworld more than just a trade show and both would still exist even if the show floor was half the size.

As for that possibility, the second half of my informal poll asked, "If you think Macworld is going to survive in some form or another, will you be attending next year as an Exhibitor?" Only 40 percent said they had already committed to 2010. Twenty-eight percent had not, while 32 percent said they’d wait and see.

Some large presences have dropped out already, like Adobe, Belkin and Seagate, and there are more dropouts coming. Filemaker, also a significant presence, was dropping out for 2010, leaving in its wake a lot of uncertainty about independent Filemaker developers and consultants, who were also exhibiting nearby. Microsoft's Mac-related announcements this year didn't exactly set the world on fire, except perhaps for Entourage '08 users seeking a better relationship with their Exchange servers at work, so one has to question whether Redmond’s Mac Business Unit will be in play next year. As their PR rep told me, "we usually release a major upgrade every three to four years." So we won't be seeing anything new for Office before 2011 at the earliest. Why spend all that money, even if you're Microsoft?

Of course, with so many big players out of the game next year, up-and-comers may step up and take a larger share of the spotlight. Many vendors I spoke to, however, scoffed at that notion. Those who said they were definitely not returning next year, made that decision because either without Apple's presence, there was no point for them being there, or Macworld was becoming more of a consumer-product show, focused around iPhone and iPod (as opposed to one supporting the Macintosh platform and its ecosystem). Vendors of Mac products in the higher end of the IT spectrum were finding fewer and fewer potential professional customers to talk to.

Some suggested that certain groups of vendors may gravitate toward more niche-specific shows, like Nat'l Assn. of Broadcasters, Nat'l Assn. of Music Merchants, or Wedding and Portrait Photographers International, which are doing fine without Apple. Or, someone may set up an Apple-oriented exhibit space at next year’s CES.

So what do I think will happen next year? Health permitting, the Stevenotes will also continue, but at a time and place of Steve's choosing, rather than conforming to a rigid trade show schedule. Never again will we hear the words:  "This product ships the end of June."

Yet there’s still a need for a Mac-specific conference: Macs claim double-digit market share domestically and single-digits globally. It’s also still good to have a place where aficionados, creative pros, and IT administrators can gather, share knowledge, and network. This is true now more than ever, as both Mac hardware and OS X have encouraged even hardened corporate Windows administrators to take a second look.

I hope and expect to see that momentum sustained. Software, peripherals, and evangelism: That was Macworld Expo's roots, 25 years ago; it’s those this show needs to return to survive past 2010. So, as I suggested in the title (a riff on the old REM song), Macworld without Apple will have to change, but the changes may be good.

—Thomas A. Olson