3D TV: Finally Ready for Prime Time?

3D technology, which had moments in the 1950s and '70s, is once again in the spotlight here at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES). Companies including Dolby, Nvidia, Panasonic, Samsung, and Texas Instruments are all expected to make 3D announcements.

3D-capable sets from Samsung (DLP and plasma) and Mitsubishi (DLP) are already on the market. But consumer interest has been dampened by the fact that most 3D content has been PC-based and requires both conversion software and pricey, shutter-style polarized glasses for viewing on a TV. The lack of a single 3D standard is another drawback.

A resurgence of 3D in theaters could spark more interest in the technology. Two dozen 3D releases are planned for the next two years, and the number of 3D-ready movie screens is expected to triple. Both Disney's Pixar unit and DreamWorks Animation are among the studios with 3D movies in the works, and directors such as Steven Spielberg, Peter Jackson, George Lucas, and James Cameron have a 3D iron in the fire as well.

Our best guess is that even if 3D is successful in theaters, it will take several more years for it to become a meaningful experience in the home. Several companies are currently pitching their 3D approaches as a standard for the industry. Dolby, for example, is here at CES touting its 3D technology for use in Blu-ray movies and videogames. We expect Texas Instruments to do the same on behalf of its polarizing technology. Panasonic is rumored to be showing a 3D-ready plasma set, and is reportedly pitching a 3D technology to the Blu-ray Disc Association.

Setting a standard should help fuel the adoption of 3D technology in the home. In addition to the Blu-ray Disc Association, organizations including the Society of Motion Picture and Television Engineers (SMPTE) and the 3-D@Home Consortium are looking to establish standards and promote 3D technology to consumers.

But as I've discovered in the 20 years I've been covering the CE industry, these things take time. Still, it may well be that the stars are finally aligning for 3D technology to take hold. We'll be discussing 3D technology with TV manufacturers while we're here, so stay tuned for further developments from CES.

—James K. Willcox