CES 2009: The future of Microsoft is…cloudy

To hear Steve Ballmer—Microsoft's wunderkind and now CEO—tell it, computing is drifting off into the clouds…referring to the "cloud" of interconnected computers, that is, which makes up the Internet. Ballmer played the starring role in Wednesday night's opening keynote presentation for the 2009 CES, taking over from Bill Gates, who, as expected, was nowhere to be seen except in flashes among the quick-cut scenes in the Microsoft ads played on a huge screen.

Ballmer (seen at right) spoke glowingly of "Windows Live," Microsoft's major push into Internet-based computing, leading the way—or following in the footsteps of Google, some believe—towards software as a service (SaaS). For Microsoft, the ultimate success of this model depends on users' willingness to "pay as you go" for the use of Microsoft applications that are not running on their PC, but on virtual machines in a distant data center, accessed through a web browser that could even be running on (gasp!) Mac OS.

For now, Microsoft is offering Windows Live Essentials, comprising "Messenger, Mail, Writer, Photo Gallery, Movie Maker beta, Family Safety, and Toolbar", as a free download; it will be preinstalled on all Dell consumer and small-business computers. Not that you couldn't get most of these functions from existing applications bundled in Windows Vista, but Microsoft's new push leverages the "connectedness" of PCs and other Internet-connected devices, and preps users to think of the Internet as an extension of Windows that provides limitless capabilities, and an opportunity for Microsoft and its partners tosell you up to some of them.

Ballmer posited the ubiquity of the "three screens" in our lives: PC, TV and smart phone. The statistics he quoted do, indeed, show that Microsoft operating systems dominate those platforms. But, it's a bit like saying that most American cars come with Goodyear tires: The OS on a Verizon smart phone is not a choice left to the buyer. The popularity of the X-Box360 game system is despite the fact that it's a Microsoft-branded product. Nevertheless, Microsoft's relentless drive to corral partners—hardware, software, and online—into its vision ensures that there will be a continuous stream of new ways for people to share their personal content among "connected" devices and web services. Which of them will survive in the long run will depend on many intangibles. Microsoft recently partnered with the popular Facebook social-networking site, which is likely to produce some spin-offs beneficial to one or both of them.

Microsoft's keynoters usually outline some key trends they see coming up in the not-too-distant future. Ballmer's were vague enough to be likely to come to pass, if they haven't already:

• Moore's law—the exponential expansion of computing power—will continue in the form of multiple processors. This is already happening, though Ballmer stated that applications need to be developed that take full advantage of this extra power.

• Displays will become larger and more powerful. We are already seeing 20-inch laptops, and all-in-one desktops with touch-enabled 24-inch screens. Microsoft continues to show its "surface" computer with a table-top-style screen that is highly interactive.

• PCs will become more adaptable to the needs of the user. Laptops that convert to tablet PCs are one example, and PCs that let you access the web within a few seconds of powering on, while completing the bootup in the background, have been announced.

• Communications between devices will become more seamless. That will be a welcome advance for (the majority of) smart phone users who have had problems "syncing" their phone and PC, or tried to play Apple iTunes downloads on their Microsoft Zune player.

Finally, Windows 7—which some have called "Vista done right"—is on the horizon. The Microsoft team made much of its new features. We'll be covering those at a later date, but be aware that there will be a "public beta" you can download on January 9, if you really want to try out Windows 7 on your own (properly backed-up) PC. We don't recommend this except for real enthusiasts who can solve their own installation problems and restore the PC when the beta expires on August 1. Plus, only the first 2.5 million downloaders will be able to get the beta.

—Dean Gallea

Comments

[Rob]

I'm so confused why CR wastes resources reporting things others already do in a better manner.