Flat-panel HDTV prices still falling, but not as much as last year

Prices on flat-panel LCD and plasma TVs will decline in 2008, but not as dramatically as they did last year, when prices dropped by more than one-third overall. Still, look at the glass as half-full--you’ll be getting lots more screen for the money. For the first time, you should find a good selection of LCD and plasma HDTVs with 40- to 42-inch screens for less than $1,000, and so-called “full HD” 1080p models in those sizes for $1,100 to $1,200.

In addition to better values, you’ll also find more TV sizes—including bigger LCD displays and smaller plasmas—and a new type of display, OLED, which could be the wave of the future.

Here’s what you can expect if you go shopping for a TV during the holiday season later this year.

LCD TVs
In midsized to larger LCD TVs, price cuts will range from 5 percent to 19 percent, according to industry experts at the recent DisplaySearch Flat-Panel TV Conference (click here to see the previous blog). You’ll save more on 19-inch 720p models, which will average about $258 by year’s end, 25 percent less than in December 2007. (All the DisplaySearch price forecasts listed here are for average selling prices at the end of this year compared to the end of last year.)

• a 32-inch 720p set will sell for $647, down 7 percent from December 2007
• a 37-inch 720p LCD TV will cost $782, down 5 percent
• a 40- or 42-inch 720p LCD TV will sell for $944, down 5 percent
• a 40- or 42-inch 1080p set will sell for $1,123, down 19 percent
• a 46- or 47-inch 1080p set will sell for $1,528, down 17 percent
• a 52-inch 1080p LCD TV will sell for $2,243, down 19 percent

Plasma TVs
DisplaySearch doesn’t expect anything close to the cuts we saw last year, when overall plasma prices dropped 35 to 40 percent from the prior December, and prices of 50-inch 1080p models were down an astounding 63 percent. This year, price cuts will range from about 17 to 27 percent, they predict.

• a 42-inch 720p set will sell for $803, down 20 percent from December 2007
• a 42-inch 1080p model—which were scarce last year—will sell for $1,200, down 20 percent
• a 50-inch 720p model will sell for $1,154, down 17 percent
• a 50-inch 1080p model will sell for $1,817, down 27 percent

Other trends
• New TV sizes —55-inch LCDs and 46-, 37-, and 32-inch plasmas—should start to make inroads in the U.S. DisplaySearch noted the growing success of smaller plasmas in other regions of the world, and said that some manufacturers could look to grow their business in the U.S. by offering those sizes here to compete with LCD.
• There will be an increased emphasis on 120Hz technology, which minimizes the motion blur that has plagued LCD displays, even though it can add 30 percent to the cost of a set.
• Expect a shakeout among some second- and third-tier LCD brands as margins tighten and first-tier brands go after market share.
• The use of LEDs will surge, both in TVs and in notebook PCs. In the latter category, they could represent 10 percent of the market by the end of the year and 20 percent in 2009.
• OLEDs will have a breakout year—120 percent growth is predicted—although the technology won’t have an impact on the mainstream TV market for several years. It will represent only 2 percent of the overall North American TV market in 2012.
• Wal-Mart and the warehouse clubs will continue to be more important retail outlets for TVs. These retailers are largely responsible for Vizio’s emergence as the Number 3 flat-panel TV brand, and sales at these outlets are proving to be less seasonal than at other retailers. Wal-Mart is now the Number Two TV retailer behind Best Buy.
• As average selling prices and margins decline, look for retailers to push larger, higher-resolution TVs, or “bundles” that could include everything from Blu-ray high-def DVD players to accessories and extended warranties. For example, in 2006 the average gross profit on a 42-inch 720p LCD TV was $246; at the end of last year, it was $94, a 62-percent drop.
• Look for a mix of big brands and up-and-comers in stores. Based on unit sales, Samsung is the leading TV brand in North America, with 13.3 percent of the market, trailed by Sony (8.8 percent), Vizio (8.3 percent), Funai (7.8 percent), and Sharp (7.2 percent). But the lead changes hands periodically. Vizio was the number one brand in the second quarter of 2007 based on unit sales, and Sony rose to become the top LCD TV brand for the first time in the fourth quarter.

Despite price advantages in some screen sizes and some technological edges, plasma TV market share will continue to slide as more U.S. consumers continue to opt for LCD TVs. Stay tuned for an upcoming blog that will address our take on the relative merits of the two technologies, and ask for you to let us know which type you'll be buying and why.—James K. Wilccox

Comments

[Falling prices for LCD screens predicted]

I think it's a good news to hear that prices are going down.

[Kelly]

Is thier any difference between a True Flat Screen TV and a Pure Flat Screen Tv? I'm just looking for a tube tv, nothing fancy, can't afford the LCD's yet.

[Raj]

I agree with Jon Linna above regarding rear-projection CRTs. These are superb quality. I have a 52 inch Hitachi. I have seen many of my friends buying LCDs, Plasmas, etc, but none seem to have the realistic colors of my Hitachi 52". Can't explain why but the images get even purer with digital broadcasts.

With HD programming, on HDTV compatible sets, there could emerge a definite difference. Still interested in more comments from viewers with DLP sets.

[phyllis kay]

I need to purchase a 26inch TV to fit my armoire.
I can't find any rating listed in your reportage.
all seem to be over 32 inches. Interested in a flat
screen LCD. where can I get information on this?

[everett whitney]

TO: " Jocelyn G. - 18 April - HDTV too Costly "

HDTVs prices have dropped very considerably in the last 24 months.... well over half.

Perhaps another alternative will be to look at the NON- "HD" Tvs at most Wal-Mart SuperCenters, etc., which are fixed screen size/resolution sets yet with digital tuners for standard digital O.T.A. signals.

These are quite inexpensive & will pick up / display all the major networks + PBS in standard digital, without any
Converter Box at all.

[Jocelyn Gallant]

There those who are low income and mordate incomes cannot afford large flat screen tvs because the prices are still too high for the advages citizens.

Those higher incoms can afford to buy flat screen tv today.

Prices today is very difficult for anyone to buy anything such as food, clothing today. Flat Screen TVs has not come down that much, It needs to drop even more so low income and mordate incomes customers cannot afford to buy flat screen tvs.

I wish the prices came down more today on flat screen tvs today.

Jocelyn Gallant
Salem, NH

[Chris Brown]

to be honest with you you shouldnt get a high def tv without getting a high def package from cable or sattalite, sd looks worse on these tv's than on non high def sets. i truly believe this because i sell them and alot of people return them because they dont know that theyre not getting high def and think the picture is horrible. thats why major retailers allways have these tv's on high def programs

[everett whitney]

To: " Jennifer - 09 - No Cable but LCD / Plasma ?"

As far as receiving OTA-HD signals, no difference at all.
Either will do well, better with an appropriate outdoor antenna system. Indoor digital antenna are "problematic."

But - your viewing room WILL ! Relative 'brightness' from
outside lighting, distance from normal seating to TV, chief Interests ( Ice skating, tennis, Fast Action, very quick scene changes, etc.) will need to be considered. Also, somewhat larger plasma display sizes may be had for less monies compared to LCD - each being in top tier models.

Plasma = Fast Scene Changes, Rooms reasonably well-controlled ambient lighting( the darker, the better), Displays do present darker 'blacks', considerably fewer concerns now about "permanent burn-in"...

Latest Panasonics already under $1,000 in 42"

[Jennifer]

I need to purchase a new tv, but I don't have cable and will not be getting it. Would plasma or LCD be the better choice in this situation, or does it matter?

[everett whitney]

To: " Shad H. - Pioneer Kuro Elite Extra Large Sizes.."

Other than for existing stocks within the 'pipeline' of former factory to vendor, these are "gone" as Pioneer announced some time ago. Also, herein @ C.R..

Until they "partner" with some other company - including the licensing of their Proprietary Features / Patents - you are TOO LATE !

[everett whitney]

To " Dan - 27Mar - LCD BLUR , etc..."

LCD "blurring" has to do with watching a 100+m.p.h. tennis ball with an attached trail of multiple images or somewhat like a comet's trail in the sky.

The Fast Action blurring may also be thought of as seen by some more so than others - i.e. - some saw "rainbow effects" with rear projection HDTV whereas other did not.

The top tier, major brands did not have the degree of .. blurring .. as the entry-level & no-name HDTVs may have done, too.

During the past year, many have introduced a .. 120 MHz .. feature in the most costly sets- Sony's is named " "Motionflow", etc.. However, some Brands ( Samsung ) have experienced More blurring troubles rather than an improvement with the initial attempts!

Your interest in the latest technology ( OLED ) will need to be just that for the foreseeable future -- far too costly to manufacture now even in a miniature display size.

Better to consider a L.E.D. backlighting technology - if, perhaps, a "green planet interest" was your incentive.

[everett whitney]

To "Lee - 01 April - HOW LONG ?"

Since your current TV has No connection now to anything - it will "play / show" your DVDs indefinitely, literally. There's nothing going to happen which will affect you.
All rental DVD Movies will still be available in normal (not HD ) for the foreseeable future.

No, Plasma isn't a "must have" for anyone - generally, some prefer it for fast Action, Sports as well as somewhat larger displays for less funds than in LCDs. It can be more "problematic" however in a brightly-lighted room-i.e.- many windows w/o effective blinds or draperies.

Whenever you might choose to get a satellite service, THEN will be the time to decide upon which will be better - Plasma or LCD - the display size Vs viewing distance - and all the other considerations. Satellite services are not involved in any of this " Feb '09 " date.

[Lee Weikert]

I've read the reviews but need some unique advice. What do folks like us really need? We do not watch TV, have no cable as it is not available in our area and won't be any time soon and choose not to have a satellite. We use our TV strictly for movies. Do we really need plasma (looking at 42 inch)? We would like the possiblity of satellite in the future.

And what do we need to do for a DVD player? How long will we be able to use our little inexpensive player?

Thanks!!

[Paul Eng]

To Njo:

Regarding your questions about energy consumption of plasma TV sets, check out our story, "Power Play: What it costs to run a big-screen TV" on ConsumerReports.org:

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/electronics-computers/televisions/hdtv/hdtv-made-easy/get-the-most-from-your-hdtv-3-08/overview/hdtvs-best-picture.htm

If the URL above wraps, you can also just click on my name (at the top of this comment, right next to the date and time) and the link should take you right there.

You can also just go to:

consumerreports.org

And search for "energy costs of big screen tvs" and the story should be the first one on the results list.

Hope this helps!

Thanks,
Paul Eng, Sr. Web Editor, Electronics

[everett whitney]

TO "njo-31 Mar - Plasma sets Hungry ?"

At the various web sites of any plasma makers, there are specs available , listing the Maximum wattages needed for each specific model. Key word .". max ..", since , during usual usage & after the necessary Calibration, this consumption becomes much less. The 1080p plasma will take more than any of the older .. 720p .. variety, too.
Maximum draw is during white scenes, as much as 750 watts/hr..

LCD sets will always use steadily whatever their name plate rating states - makes no difference about bright or dark scenes, as with plasma.

To be also noted will be the huge power consumption of the TIVO-like dual tuner, hard drive Receiver/Recorder HD Boxes - these can easily require 1,000 to 1,200 Watts steadily each hour, even while you're fast asleep!

Lastly, those popular 5.1 + Surround Sound Systems may also double or triple the consumption of any plasma set.

[njo]

What is the evironmental impact of plasma v. LCD HDTVs? I have heard that plasma tvs are power-hungry - please advise.

[Bill]

Wow, recently I was talking to friends about TV's in general and the different models available, quality, etc. Of course, CR came up, but here's the funny part after the posts here .... a couple of people said, yeah CR is good, but they just don't cover the high end stuff much .... I guess it's all about perspective aye? Anyway, I'll say that I continue to be amazed at the number of sets CR DOES cover. Keep up the good work.

[everett whitney]

To "John Burger - 27 Mar - smaller size ..."

During the entire time from last Halloween HDTVs have been on daily sales -- P.C. Richards & Sons featured one of the top-rated 42" Panasonics at $799 for the entire month. Others have had similar specials.

However, if this price range might still be excessive or the size too large, you will be better off to obtain a Federal Convertor for your existing picture-tube set. One appropriate "UHF band" antenna for that convertor is a Channel Master #4228. Available at many sources, one being www.solidsignal.com
About $77, including shipping. Less costly models or so-called indoor ones usually are not satisfactory for UHF.

The availability of any good quality, very small displays is essentially non-existent. C.R. can not test that which doesn't exist. Currently, all the makers have "ignored" this market, preferring instead to offer the larger displays.

[Bobby]

Completely agree with Simon. Please do review more smaller (and cheaper) TV sets.

[William Higgins]

I can definitely tell the difference between 720 and 1080! Of course you need a good signal to begin with- as with hifi- Garbage in Garbage out!
Using DirecTV HD you can actually switch manually between the two resolutions :-)

[MHH]

Interesting article. I bought my first flat panel HDTV about Sept-Oct 2007, just about the start of Football season. A Texas electronics retailer chain (Conn’s) that occasionally has “special purchase” sales. It is Hitachi 55” plasma, 720p set with 3-HDMI ports among all of the others. The newer 1080p and/or 1080i sets were coming out so this was “prior year” version. I studied the picture quality for some time and had them change the input to different sources just to compare. I compared to other 40-something inch screens, and 60” screens. Not many large LCDs. Then I went to Circuit City who had the exact model and had it displayed right under a high-end 1080p set, after much comparison I could NOT see a NOTICIBLE difference in the picture quality between the two sets. My Hitachi was priced more than a $1000 less than the newer 1080p sets of similar size and I figured the $1599 price Conn’s was a no-brainer. I have been pleased with the Hitachi but not so pleased with the quality of my Direct TV standard satellite picture quality. I called them out to be told “this is as good as it gets” (grainy) so you should upgrade to our HDTV package. To get HDTV quality picture I switch input to my indoor antenna, I get all my locals HDTV over the air with a very inexpensive RCA dual VHF/UFH indoor rabbit-ears antenna, so why bother?

[John Burger]

Yes. I am a second generation Consumer's Reports subscriber & I want to see more ratings of smaller HDTV's and antennae. I live in a small house and don't want a large TV. There is no way I'm going to spend close to $1000. Feb 2009 is coming. If there is nothing in my budget, I'll just get a converter for my old TV.

[Dan]

Thanks for the info. I'd appreciate some more insight into the blur problems with LCD and OLED technology.

[ken roberts]

what happened to DLP sets-you rarely mention them anymore-i have a 61 inch samsung and i love it- had it for two years had no problems with it-and it has a superb picture and sound

[RickyRight]

Simon speaks for us also!