Flat-Panel TVs in 2008: Fewer LCD brands, lesser price drops

If you've been putting off buying a flat-panel LCD TV with the hope of getting one for a dramatically lower price this year, it looks like you're out of luck. During the DisplaySearch Flat-Panel TV conference I'm attending in La Jolla, Calif., this week, panelists said they expect price declines in 2008 to be moderate, and some LCD models may actually be a bit more expensive.

There may also be fewer LCD brands to choose from, several panelists warned. Less familiar brands may be pushed off shelves as some better-known brands, including Sony and Vizio, continue to market models specifically for mass-market market retailers such as Wal-Mart.

In plasmas, the other major flat-panel technology, panelists predicted more and deeper price drops than for LCDs, though nothing to rival the declines of the past few years. In both plasma and LCDs, price drops will be greater for 1080p (so-called "full HD") models than for those with 720p resolution.

Both technologies will continue a growing overlap in screen sizes. In addition to a growing number of sub-40-inch plasmas, some 55-inch LCD models are expected. Ross Young, president of DisplaySearch, predicts we'll also see 46-inch plasmas emerge to compete with 46- and 47-inch LCD TVs.

As for OLED, the new kid on the flat-panel block, speakers predicted a promising future. But they also said OLED technology isn't likely to have a major impact on flat-panel TV sales for several years, for reasons that range from high cost and small size to concern about life expectancy and burn-in. More brands of OLED sets will be available in 2008. LG will begin OLED production during the first half of the year, joining Samsung, Sony, eMagin and others. Sharp is expected to build a pilot line this year. We may also see the arrival of some of the first flexible displays, most likely in eBook readers.

Other news from the event:

• Wal-Mart is now the second-largest seller of TVs in the U.S., behind Best Buy, and is expanding its offerings and merchandising;

• The use of LED backlights in LCD sets will surge in 2008, and we'll see a growing number of notebooks use this technology, which promises a wider range of colors and more consistent brightness across the display;

• In LCD, there will be a heightened emphasis on 120Hz technology, which can help reduce motion blur in fast-moving images. In January, 120Hz models had the majority share of 52-inch sets, despite the 30 percent price premium for sets with the technology;

• And retailers will increasingly push product "bundles"—such as a TV, Blu-ray player and software—to help maintain margins as TV profitability declines.

These are just some of the early highlights of the conference. I'll be filing a more comprehensive report within the next few days.

—James K. Willcox

Comments

[everett whitney]

TO: LIZ - 15 Aug - "Looking @ KDL-52W4100...?"

Do understand that Not everyone actually "sees" or experiences this much-talked about .. LCD big screen blurring ..! It's an individual phenomena.

"Motionflow" by Sony plus all the other versions have NOT been shown to be an absolute necessity ... here, C.R. has tested/evaluated/ reported Sony's version to not have any dramatic effect during Fast Action, Sports, etc., on the 46" & 52" displays. It did aid with the HD Movies during use of a BLU RAY Player.

It adds substantially to the cost of any set. Either consider dropping down to a version w/o this feature or --- especially with the reduced pricing announced ( Aug 15th) by Panasonic --- find & watch their excellent TH-50PX800U set. Only one so far to successfully have the THX certification internal setting "home" instead of "store display" for near-perfect calibration ! Particularly less costs than your posted set.

IF a LCD is preferred, watch the 52" @ Costco's & SAMs' - only sources this year for their matte, brushed metallic frame rather than the reflective, shiny, piano black ! These DO have that Motionflow, too.

[liz]

Want a good 52" lcd tv with motion flo. I am really confused as to what I should buy. Has my eye on the Sony kdl52W4100. Any advise.

[MARIEU]

Reply to mehtap. Take a look at Toshiba. I have two of them, one for 3 years and one for 2 years with zero problems. They are also less expensive than Sony. Am I the only one who thinks Sony is over rated?

[everett whitney]

TO " mehtap - 25 Mar - 42" Rear Projection -

Very sorry for your most unfortunate & costly experience!

In spite of the constant recommendation against same, you situation demonstrates why an extended warranty for those that might better afford the Sony's $289 / 5 year In-Home all-inclusive Plan rather than disposing of a HDTV prematurely.

Your set would have been replaced ( free ) under their Plan. It's available separately directly from Sony up to (60) days after purchase of a HDTV from any authorized dealer.

[mehtap]

Anybody interested in buying a sony lcd tv,should search google for sony tv problems...We paid 2500$ for kdf42we655 +800$ for the stand 3 years ago and now it stopped working ...After i started searching online what the problem might be ,i found so many complaints and problems about sony.I will purchase another brand and definetly go with a cheaper one.Expensive or good brand doesn't mean much anymore...Companies are so busy trying to invent new technology,they don't care improving their desing i guess...

[Netmark]

Costco sell Sony 46' Bravia 1080 LCD for only $1999 including S&H with two years warranty and three months return period. I thought it is a great deal!

[Chris, Oklahoma City]

While I had wanted a flat screen television for some time, I was determined to live with my CRT until it died, which happened unexpectedly 2 weeks ago (YEA!!!!).

After spending a couple days visiting stores and researching online, I narrowed my choice down to 2, both of which happened to be CR Quick Recommendations. I went with the Panasonic, a CR Best Buy, because of the brand reliability, and I couldn't be happier. Thanks, Consumer Reports!

[Bob]

James,

When you do your follow-up report, could you expand on your comment of expanded use of LED backlights for LCD? I am interested in this because of the energy savings and potential PQ gains over the more conventional CCFL backlight.

Thanks,

Bob

[everett whitney]

To Patrick - ( itching for older XBR4 ...) -

Unfortunately, the newer Sony's will apparently have such a price increase line-for-line that the older stocks might well sell-out before ever become discounted.

I.E. - the KDL-52W3000 has actually risen in selling prices some $300 above it's lowest pint!

[Patrick]

I'm itching to purchase the sony bravia kdl46xbr4 but was waiting it out till summer for expected price drop...

would think with the xbr5 officially rolled out that price would go down but so far not too much.

amazon has had it for weeks @ $2500