CES: Blu-ray, HD DVD both declare victory

At CES, proponents of the two high-def DVD formats, Blu-ray and HD DVD, each rolled out statistics that showed that their format was leading the move into the next generation of DVD players. However, apparently none of the 150,000 attendees (except representatives of the companies involved) believed either group, according to our informal poll of 11 shuttle-bus riders, plus one guy standing on a corner handing at literature for an "exotic dance review."

During the show, the HD DVD Promotions Group said that four new manufacturers — Onkyo, Meridian, Shinco and Alco — would begin to make HD DVD products for the home, while car stereo manufacturer Alpine is demoing a car-based player. The group claimed that at least 1.8 million HD DVD players will be sold this year, backed by $600 million in HD DVD title sales.

Meanwhile, during their CES press conference, Blu-ray backers proclaimed that a Blu-ray victory was "inevitable," citing statistics showing that for the first time, Blu-ray movies outsold HD DVD titles at retail (in late December). Blu-ray claimed superior hardware backing (25 companies with products in the market, 7 making dedicated BR players), plus the support of 7 of the 8 major motion picture studios. Five of those studios — Sony, Lions Gate, MGM, Fox and Disney — support Blu-ray exclusively. In addition, Sony's Blu-ray-equipped PlayStation 3 is expected to help catapult the installed base of Blu-ray players once it becomes more widely available. Sony projects that it will sell 6 million PS3s by the end of March, and 35-40 million in the next four years.

The real victor, however, could be a company that has decided to have it both ways. Warner Bros. took the occasion of the show to announce Total HD, a "universal" disc that can be played in both HD DVD and Blu-ray players. The discs, which will be available in the second half of 2007, are the same 1.2 mm size as DVDs, HD DVD and Blu-ray discs, and can be single-layer and dual-layer for both formats, resulting in 15GB/30GB on the HD DVD side, and 25GB/50GB on the Blu-ray side. Major retailers including Best Buy, Circuit City and Amazon immediately announced they would stock the discs, though it's unclear whether other studios are willing to embrace detente rather than continue battling it out as confused consumers sit on the sidelines.

— James K. Willcox