Driving less: A new trend for consumers and their cars?

The automobile is said to be one of the most important modern inventions. From the early years of engineering in the late 1800s to today’s hybrids and future green machines, the car has gone through a number of face lifts and technological achievements, and consumers have continued to embrace the changing industry by buying more vehicles and hitting the roads increasingly each year. But is that trend may be changing. New analysis shows that Americans maybe be shifting their attitudes regarding their cars.

For example, according to the Department of Transportation, Americans are driving less. The Department’s statistics show that Americans drove 7 billion fewer miles in January 2009 than the year prior. Since November 2007, the number of miles driven has continued to decline each month compared to the year prior.

Another sign is the increase in public transportation usage. Public transit is at its highest level of ridership in 52 years--an increase of four percent over last year. We have also noted this year that traffic deaths have declined and there are fewer cars on the road.

Gasoline consumption is down despite the lower gas prices compared to last year. After gas prices hit the roof last summer, as expected, consumers drove less. However, driving hasn’t picked up again even though gas prices remain far below those levels, though clearly there are many related economic factors.

In a recent Esquire column, baseball analyst and stats whiz, Nate Silver discusses this idea further by building a model that looks at gas prices, unemployment data, and variations between the driving seasons with the expectation that he will be able to predict driving behavior. Silver determines that even with the higher unemployment rate and much lower gas prices that American’s should’ve driven more in January, not less.

However, Silver also notes that consumers have a delayed reaction to gas prices and that the cost of gas a year ago usually is a better predictor of current driving trends. So, the theory goes that our decrease in driving is still related to last summer’s high oil prices. We will know more if this trend continues to ring true in the coming months. Fortunately, gas prices are not expected to hit as high as last year. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts gas prices for the summer driving season to average $2.21 a gallon, down $1.60 from last summer.

In the end, much of the trend of Americans driving less can be attributed to the recession and economic crisis, plus, sluggish auto sales and the financial problems of Chrysler and GM. But there are a number of indicators outside those factors that could point to an attitude shift. Are consumers losing the love for their cars? Are we on the brink of a major change in driving habits? Only time will tell. Let us know your thoughts.

—Liza Barth

Comments

[cars]

i don't think that anyone is willing to give up their keys for their cars these days. i for one, might not want to use the bad public transport as usually you'll be late for work rather than early!

i just hope that somehow they might develop something like the minority report transportation system. that'll be good

[crispinpierce]

The decrease in driving noted in this report is encouraging. I think as we begin to tally all the costs of using cars - car crash deaths, air pollution deaths and impairment, global instability due to oil imports, loss of natural resources due to road building, climate change, etc. -- we'll find a better balance. This will include better community design, clustering homes, businesses, schools ("smart growth"); more efficient and less expensive transportation; and an emphasis on human health (more walking and biking).

[Bobby]

I'm definitely driving less and riding my bike more. Even rode to work today (on some pretty steep hills in San Francisco). Not only is it better for the environment and my wallet, it also means I don't have to go to the gym! Frankly, I think it's UNFORTUNATE that gas is not going up this summer. We need to tax it heavily and use the money to fund public transit, bike lanes, wider sidewalks etc. Even with a moderate increase in walking and biking, we can decrease the rates of heart disease and obesity.

[Cale]

Bobby, You make some good points. But taxing the elderly that can't climb a steep SanFran hill on a bike or for whom walking isn't an option, doesn't seem to equitably distribute the burden that scarce resources impose upon the planet.

Perhaps a there is a solution that places the burden on those that have the greatest capacity to pay (a progressive tax) and not a regressive tax like a gas tax.

Cale

[Owen]

Well, it doesn't seem like we have a choice...unless someone invents a magic car that doesn't produce greenhouse gases, we have to use alternatives. I bike to work every day and use a bike trailer to carry my groceries, and I see more and more people doing the same. It's definitely a positive change because I stop and talk to a lot more people, and it gives me a different perspective on what streets could be like in future.

[Amerigo]

According to "Notizie tra le linee" it's not so different in italy: http://tiny.sm/automobile2009