Saving gas, beyond the car

Taking a hard look at the relationship between peak oil (when the maximum rate of oil extraction is reached) and water shortages paints a grim picture.

Oil supplies from non-OPEC sources have already peaked, according to Dr. Peter Wells, an oil industry consultant who works for Toyota. Drilling may produce new sources, but they are likely to be much smaller and many times more expensive to extract than existing wells. Producing energy from untapped sources (such as shale and tar sands), as well as producing alternative energy requires massive amounts of water that the U.S. currently doesn’t have.

Back-to-back presentations on these subjects at the recent Toyota Sustainable Mobility Seminar were enough to dampen the car enthusiasm of a room full of automotive journalists. In the final analysis, nothing is ever likely to be as cheap or convenient as the light, sweet crude oil of years past. 

This raises two key questions: As a society, where do we go from here? And if you’re in the business of making cars, how do you plan your future?

The answer to both questions involves learning to use less gas – and soon. The event last week in Portland, Oregon, showcased the alternatives. Portland has two forms of light rail (transit and trolleys), in addition to buses, car sharing, bike lanes, and even skateboard lanes and electric vehicle charging stations. With voter support, the city imposed an urban growth boundary in 1973 to limit sprawl, preserve open space, and concentrate development downtown. One effect was to reduce the need for cars and to make riding public transportation attractive. As some automotive journalists noted, it also reduced congestion and made the city more attractive for car drivers.

Other cities around the world and in the U.S. have made similar efforts. Boulder, Colorado, has a similar growth boundary. New York City is debating implementing a toll for bringing cars into the city, as London does already. Curitiba, a city in the south of Brazil, saves tax dollars by substituting bus lanes for light rail.

A tour of Portland revealed that the plan has helped make the city a vibrant, attractive place to live.

One afternoon, I had a few hours to kill before my flight home. I had read about a new mixed-use development in the Portland suburbs designed for people to be able to walk to stores and to the Max light-rail line. I decided to jump on the Max line and see if it was as easy to access as the city claimed. It couldn’t have been simpler to walk the four blocks to the Max, wait for the right train, ride 20 minutes, and walk 1/2-block into the development, called Orenco, in the city of Hillsboro. Orenco proved to have attractive single-family homes, as well as townhouses with hidden two-car garages, condos, and lots of parks.

My brief excursion demonstrated that with the right planning, you can build appealing communities with the promise to reduce oil consumption by reducing the need to travel, as well as by replacing individual gasoline-powered cars with alternative fuels. (Long-term sustainability and application to varied communities in other locales is an open question, though it is an appealing prospect.)

Apparently Toyota thinks so too, as it is donating four of its used battery-powered RAV4 SUVs to the city for use in a city car sharing fleet.

—Eric Evarts

Comments

[melville248]

It is to bad more cities did not have the foresight that Portland did. As you stated, with proper planning, we could accomplish so much more. How refreshing to hear of a "vibrant city" amongst all the negativity currently surrounding us.

[John Andersen]

It wasn't Portland that created the urban growth boundary in 1973, it was the State of Oregon, and it applied to cities throughout the state. That was in the days of Governor Tom McCall, often remembered for the statement: "Come visit us again and again. This is a state of excitement. But for heaven's sake, don't move here to live."

[Jeff]

Eric Evarts,

With all due respect to your blog and Dr. Peter Wells, predictions of "Peak Oil" have been around for many decades and have been proven to be wrong. Consider the following:

1) In 1914, the U.S Bureau of Mines stated that at most there was only a 10 year supply of oil remaining.
2) The Department of Interior predicted in 1939 that oil reserves in the U.S. would be exhausted in 13 years.
3) The Department of Interior in 1951 again predicted that U.S. oil reserves would be exhausted in 13 years.

I think you get the point that there have been many predictions of "Peak Oil" and they have yet to come true. The reason is that technological advances allow us to find oil in places where oil deposits were considered not to have existed. Technological advances allow us to collect and produce oil where in the past we did not have the technology to do so or it was prohibitively expensive.

Often, estimates of recoverable oil end up being understated. Here are a few of those to consider:

In 1984, the Minerals Management Service estimated that there were 6 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the Gulf of Mexico. Since that time, oil companies have produced some 13 billion barrels of oil.

The Pruedoe Bay on Alaska's Northern Slope was estimated to have 9 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Currently over 15 billion barrels have been produced from this area.

The 2007 discovery of the Tupi Field off the coast of Brazil was estimated to have between 5-10 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Those estimates now have gone up to 30 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

In 1995 a U.S. Geological Survey estimated that the Bakken Formation located in North and South Dakota and Montana contained 151 million barrels of oil. In 2008, they increased that estimate to 3 billion barrels of oil.

Estimates of oil shale in the Green River Foundation found in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming have an estimated 800 billion barrels of recoverable oil. This is three times the known reserves that Saudi Arabia has. Some believe that may be several trillion barrels of oil that could be recovered from the shale. Technological advances in the in situ processes, particularly by Shell Oil, have made the recovery of oil more economically feasible than they have ever been.

Please save the Malthusian predictions for other conspiracy forum and blog sites. You are better off when you talk about how the testing of the cars are going and CR's initial impressions of those cars.

[Car Hire Barbados]

Hi,

nice to read this site really nice blog good, keep up it.

[Brian D]

Speaking of saving gas, how come consumer reports doesn't review motorcycles and scooters? For the first time since I was about 15 I'm interested in this option for my commute and I can't be the only one.

[Jeff Bartlett - Consumer Reports]

Hi Brian,
We are working on evaluating scooters and entry-level motorcycles. In the months ahead, we will have test-based advice. In the meantime, there has been a great discussion in our forums:
http://discussions.consumerreports.org/n/pfx/forum.aspx?webtag=cr-0806camotorc

In considering a motorcycle, please ready up on the safety risks and precautions. We have published several related blogs:
http://blogs.consumerreports.org/cars/motorcycles_scooters/index.html