Toyota jumps ahead in battery development

No sooner did Congress mandate dramatically higher fuel economy standards by 2020, than Toyota quickly threw down a second challenge to Detroit. Toyota President Katsuaki Watanabe announced that Toyota will raise its fleet average fuel economy to 35 mpg before the 2020 deadline. The company is attempting to keep the lead in the public perception of fuel efficiency. (Read the results of Consumer Reports' Brand Perceptions Survey.)

In addition, the company announced that it will begin producing its own lithium-ion batteries for plug-in hybrid vehicles through its joint venture with Panasonic. This is a key breakthrough, and it may put Toyota ahead in the race to produce plug-in hybrid vehicles. Plug-in hybrids can drive for short distances on electricity only, without starting their gasoline or diesel engines. If the batteries are large enough, they could allow people to drive all week without using gasoline, since 78 percent of Americans drive less than 27 miles a day. Conversion companies and universities have been modifying the current Prius to a plug-in for some time.

Today, automakers say there are no commercially available batteries with enough capacity to power plug-in hybrids. Most automakers agree that getting enough battery capacity on-board a car, without making the car too heavy or taking up too much space, will require lithium-ion batteries, rather than the nickel-metal-hydride batteries currently used in hybrids. Other automakers are working with suppliers to develop them and buying custom-made individual batteries for their demonstration vehicles.

While U.S. automakers and technology companies are still looking for breakthroughs in lithium-ion batteries, Toyota looks set to have batteries available for plug-in hybrids commercially available by 2010. Like General Motors (see "GM invests in cellulosic ethanol"), Toyota may position itself to be both an automaker client and a supplier for the next-generation energy technology, expanding its profit potential and competitive advantage.

Every major manufacturer is working on advanced automotive technologies, and it appears that for the foreseeable future, a reduction in gasoline consumption on the national level will come from a variety of energy and powertrain strategies.

—Eric Evarts

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Comments

[joseph]

Can CR do an analysis of the CO2 emissions of a Plug in Car for 75,000 miles of operation? 50 miles a day.
Compare to a Prius & Corolla.

Assume natural gas generates the electricity.

[Eric Evarts]

Others have done such studies. Try Googling for the results from Argonne National Lab, the National Renewable Energy Lab, the Natural Resources Defense Council, or CalCars.org. NRDC has the best study I've seen. The short answer is: It totally depends on how the electricity is produced. In Midwestern and Northeastern states, plug-in hybrids would actually increase CO2. In the California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho, they would reduce it dramatically (more than 50 percent, as I recall), because most electricity there is nuclear, natural gas, and hydro. On a national average basis, it would be about a 5 percent reduction. It might make sense, though, to offer cleaner alternatives in places where they would be beneficial.

[Lynda]

So the questions would be, with essentially 50%city/50%highway driving of perhaps 18,000 miles per year, would one be better off to buy the current design Prius or to wait until 2010 for the plug-in?

Factor into the equation, a current aging vehicle averaging about 22 to 24 mpg.

Does anybody have any idea of the sticker price that might be attached to that plug-in?