New fuel economy standards won't bring real 35 mpg cars

At Consumer Reports, fuel efficiency has always been an important factor in our vehicle ratings. Helping consumers save money and reducing pollution are also  high priorities. So after years of stagnant and even falling fuel economy, we were encouraged when the federal government this month passed the first increase in fuel economy standards for cars since 1985. The initial Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) requirements first took effect in 1975.

The new standards require all new passenger vehicles sold in the United States by 2020 to average 35 mpg. That's reported to be about a 40 percent increase over the current standards of 27.5 mpg for cars and 22.2 mpg for pickups, minivans, and SUVs.

However, in our testing, reaching a real-world 35 mpg would require a bigger jump than that. The current new vehicles we have tested have averaged 20.4 mpg overall on our fuel economy test loop—22.8 mpg for cars and just 16.6 mpg for pickups, minivans, and SUVs.

To reach a true 35 mpg in the real world would require an increase of more than 70 percent in overall vehicle efficiency, broken down to more than 50 percent for cars and more than double the efficiency for pickups, minivans, and SUVs combined. That would be a tall order, for sure.

In reality, a 40-percent increase is a more realistic measurement of the new standards than the hyped "35 mpg." The main reason is that the tests automakers must pass to meet Corporate Average Fuel Economy requirements have not been updated since 1985. While fuel economy estimates on new-car window stickers have been updated twice (most recently for the 2008 model year) to bring them closer to reality, the numbers used to compute national averages for regulatory compliance have not. And the new law, set to start raising standards by 2011, doesn't change that. Averages will still be based on the assumption that drivers don't exceed 60 mph on the highway and don't use air conditioning.

A 40-percent improvement would amount to a real-world average of about 28.6 mpg in our testing. Today, a select few diesels, hybrids, and small cars can achieve such high fuel economy. Despite the media hype, by 2020, it still may be only the most fuel-efficient, and possibly revolutionary cars (think plug-in hybrids and fuel-cells) that can deliver more than 35 mpg in the real world—the same place that has the real gas pumps.

—Eric Evarts

Learn more about fuel efficiency and hybrid cars in our Fuel Economy special section.

Comments

[richard schumacher]

You mean that 12 years hence the average car will have to get at least 80% of the real-world MPGs that my Prius has been getting for the last four years? Oh my GHODD!!!! We might as well disband Western civilization right now.

[Matt Trostel]

Do flex-fuel vehicles retain the credits for being E85 compatible? These credits in years past meant vehicles like a flex fuel Suburban that would be lucky to get 15 mpg on the road was rated almost double that for CAFE. If the ethanol credits are still in place, it seems all manufacturers will have to do to meet the 35mpg requirement is utilize the ethanol credit loophole and make every vehicle flex fuel.

[ee]

Automakers will still get CAFE credit for flex-fuel and alternative fuel cars, though the credit will slowly phase out by 2020. Expect to see lots more of those flex-fuel E85 vehicles in the coming years.

[ee]

Richard,

You're right, the Prius and some other hybrids have exceeded this standard for a long time (though overall the Prius doesn't balance out Toyota's Tundra sales, though that's another story.) The reality is that the Act does little more than lay out a framework for new fuel economy regulations and mandates NHTSA to formulate the rest. We don't know what the final regulation will include. But if NHTSA follows the formula they used to revise the light truck fuel economy regs in 2005 -- and there's no reason at this point to believe they won't -- there will be so many loopholes that even 40 percent will be overestimating the fuel economy improvement this law will bring. It could even reduce fuel economy overall, though that's not a necessarily a given. Also, Toyota and Honda will likely have to meet much higher fuel economy targets than domestic manufacturers overall.

[NancyJean Parsons]

My 2007 5-speed Honda Fit gets 39 MPG on the highway, with the AC off. The car seats 5 including driver, and has a medium sized trunk. I swapped a cinderblock - the 2001 Honda Odyssey - for my Fit and am much happier. My kids, their stuff, their friends and our pet and his cage seem to fit just fine. It is no sacrifice to drive a right-sized vehicle, and perhaps those zooming around with one or two people in a huge SUV or pickup will simply need to downsize.I don't want my grandkids to wear gas masks 30 years from now. Smaller cars, many with excellent safety ratings compared to the gas hogs, are less likely to rollover and are a viable alternative. Back in the day, giant boom boxes and blasters were toted around hoisted on kids' shoulders. And now they all get their tunes from small devices the size of wallets. Time for the same journey, size-wise, for cars.

[Michael Turner]

I got tired of waiting for the car manufacturers to introduce cars that got mileage at least as good as that of my 92 Honda Civic CX, so I spent $400 modifying my Civic to reduce its Cd down to about 0.17. It now gets over 70mpg on the highway and mid to low 60's MPG around town. This was purely the result of aerodynamic drag reduction mods. The engine is stock, but I did make some changes to the cooling system airflow. If I can spend a few hundred dollars to get hybrid-level mileage out of a 16 year old non-hybrid, why can't the car manufacturer's do likewise? I would prefer to have been able to buy a new car like this rather than having to build it myself.

[Tannim]

This means nothing.

Consider GM. They can make one 60 mpg hybrid. That means they can produce one 10 mpg Sports car. Now GM owns 4 or 5 manufacturer brands. So they can brand that one hybrid under 5 labels and now with one real hybrid they can still make 5 different 10 mpg sports cars.

Sound and Fury signifying nothing.

[Freeman Eaton]

It is amazing to me how we send people the the moon to explore,etc, and it has taken far too long to bring up fuel economy for our transportation needs.We have shipped so many jobs......AWAY....from our wonderful country and the middle class America have suffered untold economic pain, ripped off their pensions. Now, like i had to is to hopefully find a job to supplement their income. Too many people are working hard and do not have the the time to check out what the politicians are doing. I wonder what is is going to take for people to wake up. Or we are not going to have a country to turn around in.I like CONSUMER REPORTS..GOOD TRUTHFUL INFORMATION,
LORD KNOWS WE CAN USE MORE INTEGRITY IN THE U.S.A!

[Lou]

I have a 1998 z28 camaro and it has a ls1 v8 and a 6 speed trans, and it gets 31.4 mpg goin 85 to 90 mph and 25 mpg in the city. I love cars and i think that you can get a v8 powered car to get really good gas mileage, i would hate to see any kind of fun cars to go away because of this new fuel regulation.